538 Political forecasts show Texas is Democrats’ best chance to win a Senate seat and maintain control

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — 538 Politics has released its U.S. Senate forecast for this year’s election.

While the race here between incumbent Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred is neck-and-neck, the prediction of which party will control the upper chamber is much clearer. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joined Eyewitness News to break down what the data shows.

538 takes a look at polling, economic and demographic data to figure out what election results might look like.

Rakich said her forecast shows Republicans are more likely to win control of the upper chamber. In simulations, they gained control 87 out of 100 times. Democrats won control 13 times out of 100.

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Their forecast also shows that of all the seats they are trying to flip, Democrats are most likely to capture the Texas Senate seat.

However, Cruz is still the favorite. Their simulations showed that he won 82 out of 100 times. Allred won the seat 18 out of 100 times.

Rakich said these projections are not predictions and should be viewed as tools to help voters understand what is likely to happen, rather than what will happen.

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