7 things to watch out for in today’s debate: From the Politics Department

Welcome to the online version of From the political editorial teaman evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we preview the showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains why Pennsylvania could be the most important swing state.

Programming note: Stay tuned for tonight’s special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter, where we recap and analyze the presidential debate.

The 90-minute showdown – moderated by ABC News and simultaneously on NBC – is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET. Follow all the action in our live blog.

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7 things to watch out for in today’s debate

Ahead of today’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump – the first-ever meeting between the two candidates – seven NBC News staffers weighed in on one important thing they’ll be paying attention to:

Kristen Welker: How will the candidates deal with their vulnerabilities?

Tonight I’ll be watching each candidate address their biggest weaknesses on their respective issues. For Trump, it’s abortion, and for Harris, it’s her policy reversals on some key policy positions. Read more →

Chuck Todd: Who are the candidates talking to?

One thing I will pay attention to is which voters each candidate appeals to most directly. Every election campaign has a theory about which coalition of voters it needs to win. It is striking that both election campaigns are facing the same challenges, but so far seem to be tackling them differently. Read more →

Monica Alba: Can Harris create a viral moment?

One of Harris’ biggest moments during her debate with then-Vice President Mike Pence in 2020 was a reaction when he interrupted an answer and she said, “I’m speaking,” several times. It seemed like something she had planned, so we’ll be watching to see if she has a similar response prepared in case Trump cuts her off, although muting the microphones adds an additional challenge to how that might play out in real time. Continue reading →

Garrett Haake: Can Trump stay true to his campaign strategy?

Trump’s campaign team has a clearly defined and thoroughly prepared strategy for tonight: to define Harris as “dangerously liberal” and unfit for the presidency. Does that sound familiar? The challenge for Trump’s campaign team has long been that Trump as a candidate is willing to accept this framework, in which he often seemed uninterested. Read more →

Gabe Gutierrez: What does Harris say about immigration?

One thing to watch out for is whether Harris continues her march to the center on immigration policy and how she communicates her more nuanced stance on building another border wall. Read more →

Jonathan Allen: How does Harris exude strength?

Trump always tries to portray himself as the strongest candidate. He does this with his words and with his physical swagger. That’s a quality that’s important to voters – they want to know that a leader will protect them, and perceived strength is part of that. The question is: What will Harris do to demonstrate strength against Trump? Continue reading →

Emma Barnett: Is there a handshake?

Right at the start of the debate, you should pay attention to whether Harris and Trump shake hands. The customary handshake at the beginning of a presidential debate is a way for the candidates to set the tone and show mutual respect. In the last three presidential elections, however, the handshake has not been a given. Read more →

More coverage ahead of the debate from NBC News

Why Pennsylvania is so crucial for both candidates’ path to victory

By Steve Kornacki

It is fitting that today’s debate is taking place in Pennsylvania, because when it comes to reaching 270 electoral votes, the Keystone State is primus inter pares.

With 19 electoral votes, this is the largest single victory among the seven key swing states – which also include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. To fully offset the mathematical impact of a loss in Pennsylvania, each candidate would need to win at least two other swing states.

There are ways for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania, but the paths would be narrow. Let’s look at the current state of the race. If you ignore the swing states and all other states vote as they did in 2020, Harris would start with 226 electoral votes while Trump would have 219.

Taking the seven swing states into account, this would result in a total of 44 different combinations of results. 21 of these combinations (47.8%) would result in Trump receiving at least 270 electoral votes; 20 of them (45.4%) would bring Harris to or above 270 votes, and three (6.8%) would result in a tie.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Pennsylvania were to vote for Harris. That would give her 245 electoral votes, reducing the number of remaining state election combinations to 16. And 10 of those 16 remaining combinations (62.5%) would result in Harris reaching the magic number of 270; only six of those remaining combinations (37.5%) would give Trump at least 270 votes. In other words, a win in Pennsylvania alone would give Harris a clear majority of the remaining paths to 270 votes.

None of the other swing states would change the playing field that much. Here’s what share of the remaining combinations of state results would be left to each candidate if Harris won one of the swing states:

(Table)

It’s also worth noting that a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College would almost certainly result in a Trump presidency. In that case, the House of Representatives would choose the winner, with each state delegation getting one vote. Even if they don’t end up winning a majority in the chamber, Republicans will most likely control most delegations.

So adding the tiebreaker combinations to the Trump column only reinforces Pennsylvania’s unique importance to Harris: If she wins it, she’ll have an advantage no other battleground can offer her. And that makes the state just as important to Trump. If he wins it, it denies Harris her clearest path to 270.

That’s all from the Politics Department for now. If you have any feedback – likes or dislikes – email us at [email protected]

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