Yankees vs. Royals predictions, tips: bet on Marcus Stroman

The Yankees probably fancy their chances when they see the Royals on the schedule.

They looked as dominant as ever on Monday, scoring 10 runs in the series opener.

Over the past three seasons, the Yankees have a 14-4 record against Kansas City, with just one home loss.

Game 2 will see a duel between two right-handers: Kansas City sends Seth Lugo to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Marcus Stroman.

Although Lugo was by far the Royals’ best pitcher, this Yankees lineup has a knack for outplaying the starter and doing damage to opposing bullpens.

Odds for Royals vs. Yankees

Royals Outlook

At 79-66, Kansas City is in excellent position to qualify for the postseason via a wild-card spot. Technically, the Royals still have a chance at a division title, but they are 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

Kansas City has one glaring weakness: its offense.

The Royals have a below-average wRC+ rating of 99, the lowest rating among the teams currently ahead of them in the playoff race, so there is minimal room for error, especially when facing the better teams in MLB.

The Yankees know Lugo from his time with the Mets. According to Baseball Savant, the current Yankees roster has a .265 average with a .337 wOBA in 95 batting appearances against the right-hander.

Lugo tends to throw backwards, throwing his curveball (26%) more often than any other pitch in his arsenal. He also complements his fastball with a sinker to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the field.

However, the Yankees are scoring 32.7 runs above average against the sinker, the best in the league, and are second against the more traditional four-seam fastball (+31.2).

These numbers do not necessarily bode well for Lugo at this start.

Yankees Analysis

Stroman continues to defy expectations in his first season with the Yankees. He has been a regression candidate for some time now, thanks to a 4.73 FIP that is 0.70 runs above his traditional ERA.

Despite having a 10-7 record, New York is winning 63 percent (17-10) of its starts, so even if Stroman has to leave the game from a losing position, this Yankees lineup is strong enough to save him.

Stroman has good numbers against the Royals, posting a .211 batting average with a .270 wOBA in 102 at-bats. His ability to limit the Royals to an average launch angle of 4.5 degrees is equally impressive.

Although Stroman is hardly a flyball pitcher, his HR/9 ratio has nearly doubled from 0.59 to 1.13.

To compensate for the loss of velocity (his average fastball has dropped from 92 mph to 89.9), he has increased his cutter usage from 9.6 to 18.1 percent.

The cutter could be especially important on Tuesday night considering the Royals are scoring 9.2 runs below average against the field.

Royals vs. Yankees tip

Monday’s game was another example of the Royals’ bullpen woes, as their relievers allowed seven runs in the seventh and eighth innings, pushing their bullpen ERA to 4.54 this season – the sixth-worst in the league.

An interesting approach that has proven to be very profitable is to back the Yankees in a game where they lost Stroman’s previous start.

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You would have to go back to April 10 against the Marlins to find the last time the right-hander lost two games in a row.

This trend is back in full swing after Stroman’s loss to the Rangers.

Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-140, Caesars)