CFB odds and tips for week 2

Texas State is a real candidate for the Group of 5 College Football Playoffs. After a 49-10 win over UTSA, the Bobcats’ offense looks like a superior force.

However, Arizona State isn’t that bad.

Thanks to top running back Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils are 2-0 after a 40-point win over Wyoming and a touchdown win over Mississippi State.

The two teams will meet in a non-conference game in San Marcos, Texas, on Thursday night, with Arizona State as a slight favorite.

Let us analyze the pairing and make a prediction and selection.

Arizona State vs Texas State odds

Prediction for Arizona State vs. Texas State

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Yes, the Sun Devils beat an SEC team last week, but they shouldn’t have won that game.

Mississippi State outgained Arizona State by more than 100 yards (415 to 292) and achieved a much higher success rate (48% to 43%).

If the Sun Devils hadn’t recovered both of the Bulldogs’ fumbles, they probably would have gone into Thursday’s game with a 1-1 score.

They would probably have gone into Thursday’s game as underdogs too.

According to my performance ratings, Texas State is the home favorite by one point, which is a three-point difference from the current market price.

The Bobcats returned nine starters from a 2023 offense that averaged 37 points per game (11th nationally) and ranked 15th nationally in success rate (48%).

Coach GJ Kinne has worked wonders with the offense.

Top back Ismail Mahdi returns after a 1,300-yard season and three of his five offensive linemen have returned to fill in the gaps.

The Bobs ranked in the top 20 nationally in rush success rate and explosiveness last season.

After two games, it looks like the offense could be even better than last year after quarterback TJ Finley was replaced by Jordan McCloud, who completed 68% of his passes for 3,600 yards for James Madison in 2023.

Texas State ranks fifth nationally in passing plays over 30 yards (six) through the first two weeks.

McCloud delivered a near-perfect performance (68% passing accuracy, 547 yards, five touchdowns), while Mahdi and backup Lincoln Pare combined for more than 300 rushing yards at nearly 6 yards per attempt.

The Bobcats are firing on all cylinders and should overwhelm Arizona State’s defense, which ranked 122nd nationally in passing success percentage allowed and 130th in passing success percentage allowed last season.

Arizona State’s defense, on the other hand, does not seem to have improved.

Only four regular players from last year’s squad were able to return, and the first seven teams are heavily dependent on transfers.

Mississippi State has a pass-heavy offense, so it’s understandable that the Bulldogs didn’t gain many rushing yards (24) in Week 1 against Arizona State. However, MSU managed just under 9 yards per pass attempt (85th percentile) and 0.37 EPA per dropback (84th percentile), trailing veteran quarterback Blake Shapen.

Imagine what McCloud can do on Thursday night.

I’m worried about Texas State’s defense against Skattebo. The Bobcats were awful last season and the Sun Devils’ star running back has already amassed over 300 rushing yards at over 7 yards per attempt through two games.

However, nine starters from Texas State’s defense returned last year, including five of the top eight defensive players. With more experience, the Bobcats should continue to improve as the season progresses.

The more experienced front seven have already shown improvement. UTSA managed just 66 rush yards on 30 attempts in a brutal 10-point performance last Saturday.

The Bobcats are likely more vulnerable to passing plays, especially chunk passing plays, as they ranked 126th in explosiveness allowed last season. However, it is questionable whether Arizona State can throw the football.

Betting on college football?

New QB1 Sam Leavitt has completed only 57% of his passes in two games.

Against Mississippi State, he completed 10 of 20 passes for just 69 yards at 3.5 yards per attempt, resulting in -0.53 EPA per dropback (5th percentile).

I’m betting on at least the better quarterback (McCloud) in the home game on Thursday.

Arizona State vs. Texas State – Selection

Arizona State is overrated heading into Thursday’s game, and I expect them to be favorites on the road against a more complete and balanced Texas State team.

The Bobcats can run, pass, and appear to be on the upswing in the front seven. I’m not sure Arizona State can do more than make up ground behind Skattebo in what could be a bad matchup.

Choose: Texas State +1.5 (-112, DraftKings)