Premier League predictions and best bets: Erik ten Hag gives Manchester United an important win | Football news

Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to give his insight into every Premier League game and predict an 11/1 weekend treble win.

Southampton – Manchester United, Saturday, 12.30pm

Russell Martin’s football in the Premier League suffers from some teething problems.

They looked confident in possession and showed a creative style of play that made the Saints look like a Premier League team for long stretches. But their risky strategy of playing out from the back is paying them dearly.

They are favourites to be relegated at 8/13 with Sky Bet and Manchester United, under Erik ten Hag, are very good at shutting down the Premier League’s lesser stars, so when he needs a result, the Dutchman is usually chosen.

In 20 away games against teams that finished the season in the bottom half of the table, Manchester United have won 14, drawn four and lost just twice. Their away record against relegated teams is six wins from six and they have conceded just two goals. Sky Bet is offering United a win and fewer than 3.5 goals at 6/4 – it should be close.

RESULT PREDICTION: 0-1

Brighton vs Ipswich, Saturday, 3pm

Are Brighton the real winners? After three games in the Fabian Hurzeler era, the markets are screaming for them.

The outright winner odds (9/2 at Sky Bet) put them on par with Manchester United in the top four and the odds to finish in the top six are 13/8, having been much higher earlier in the season.

European football is definitely not in their favour and that also applies to the variety of attacking options in their forward line, such as Kaoru Mitoma, who is priced at 2/1 with Sky Bet to score in a winnable game for Brighton.

The Japanese star is coming off his best season in 22/23, when he averaged almost a goal in every other Premier League game at the Amex, and can score in a home win.

RESULT PREDICTION: 3-1

Crystal Palace vs Leicester, Saturday, 3pm

I have not yet seen any hard evidence that Leicester have enough firepower to avoid relegation this season.

They have scored just 1.33 expected goals from open play in their three games so far and looked woefully bereft of ideas against Aston Villa last weekend, although Villa did manage a nerve-racking 2-1 result. It was far more comfortable.

In the meantime, Oliver Glasner should be able to get Palace back on track after the transfer window closed. Palace, on the other hand, have fared better than many predicted.

And I was very impressed with their second-half performance at Chelsea, when the introduction of the forgotten Cheick Doucoure completely reinvigorated their midfield.

He and Adam Wharton could develop a very good partnership there – one that should take them to a routine home win in this game, where a Palace win and under 3.5 goals are worth a second look at 13/8 with Sky Bet.

RESULT PREDICTION: 2-0

Fulham – West Ham, Saturday, 3pm

West Ham left-back Emerson Palmieri could have his hands full with a revitalised Adama Traore on Fulham’s right-hand side, with opposition left-backs always vulnerable to cards and fouls when the price is placed directly against the powerful winger.

Traore has drawn 64 cards from opponents in the Premier League, while he and right-back Kenny Tete have drawn eight fouls between them in their three appearances this season.

Prices like 6/4 at Sky Bet for Emerson to get two fouls and 9/2 for his card are both live, and if you combine the two you can get a 7/1 bet using the BuildABet feature at Sky Bet.

RESULT PREDICTION: 1-1

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Nottingham Forest’s defensive record under Nuno Espirito Santo deserves more respect than the markets here show. In the 24 games since his appointment, only Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have a better expected goals conceded rate than Forest (1.24 per 90 minutes) and they have conceded two or more goals in just four of their last 17 games in all competitions.

I can trust them to keep the game exciting.

Liverpool have played with more control and less chaos under Arne Slot, which has affected their attacking performance in the first half. In games against Ipswich, Brentford and Manchester United, they have only had 3-5-4 shots on goal in the first half and scored more goals than expected before half-time.

The total number of goals is estimated at over three for this encounter, which seems high, but the under 1.5 goals in the first half at 8/11 with Sky Bet seems to be the safest way to bet on the anti-goals strategy.

RESULT PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 1.5 goals in the first half (8/11 with Sky Bet – part of the 11/1 weekend hat-trick!)

Man City vs Brentford, Saturday, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Considering how relentless and focused Manchester City have been earlier in the season, this is set to be another predictable race to the finish, with low odds like a City win and an Erling Haaland goal likely to come up short.

We’ll have to get creative to find an angle and Brentford’s two or more offside line at 10/11 with Sky Bet presents a great opportunity. The Bees have been flagged for offside 20 times in their last five meetings with City, with the two or more line landing every time. They move the ball forward quickly and City’s high line means there are always offside opportunities for the opposition.

RESULT PREDICTION: 3-1

Aston Villa vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Jarrad Branthwaite is getting better with every game he misses for Everton. Everton have been without him six times since the start of last season and have lost five of them, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game. With the noise at Goodison Park getting louder and louder, this is a nightmare game for Sean Dyche.

Aston Villa have won 12 of their 18 games against teams that finished 12th or worse last season and are unbeaten in all 10 Premier League home games against the bottom half of the table, winning eight times.

The fact that Ollie Watkins was given some time to recuperate during the international break also doesn’t bode well for Everton. The Villa striker has failed to score in his last seven appearances in all competitions and has wasted six big chances. That doesn’t worry me though – he’s too dangerous an finisher to let that streak continue much longer. A Villa win and a Watkins goal at 7/4 with Sky Bet looks like a winner in the making.

OUTCOME PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ollie Watkins to score in an Aston Villa win (7/4 at Sky Bet – part of the weekend’s 11/1 treble)

Bournemouth vs Chelsea, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This promises to be exciting. Chelsea looked very good in attack at times in their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, but left a lot to be desired in the decisive moments of the game, which prevented them from converting their direct play into a win.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, failed to win any of their 12 Premier League games against the top six last season – picking up just two points from a possible 36 – and have not looked so confident this season, allowing 25 shots on goal in their four games in all competitions. Goals should be on the cards, and anytime goalscorer odds such as 15/8 at Sky Bet on Antoine Semenyo and 2/1 on Noni Madueke should both give bettors a good chance.

RESULT PREDICTION: 2-2

Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Given Arsenal’s selection issues in midfield, missing Martin Odegaard or Declan Rice, I imagine Mikel Arteta will treat this game like a Champions League away game in a biased atmosphere, and coming away with a point will be seen as a good result.

It will be a low-risk game with the aim of silencing the home crowd at every opportunity and I am confident Arsenal can frustrate Spurs given their spectacular away record. Arsenal have taken 28 points from a possible 30 away from home in 2024 and have never fallen behind on the road this year. Their defence has only conceded three goals in those 10 games.

The way to frustrate an Ange Postecoglou side is to defend in numbers and block congestion on the flanks, as Spurs are not very adept at breaking down deep defences. They are developing into a team that takes a lot of shots, but their expected goals output doesn’t quite match that – this suggests a problem with creating quality scoring opportunities.

I think Arsenal can shape the game to keep the goals low and the odds of 11/8 at Sky Bet for under 2.5 goals are quite lucrative.

RESULT PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet – Part of the triple victory from 1 July at the weekend!)

Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

My betting instinct led me to predict an intense battle in the midfield in this game.

Newcastle’s trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and possibly Sandro Tonali are all aggressive midfielders who commit a lot of fouls. If you add up their average fouls last season, they combined for 5.8 fouls per 90 minutes. Joelinton and Guimaraes have also committed 18 fouls between them in the Premier League this season.

I expect similar averages for the trip to Molineux, where I like the odds on Wolves midfielder Mario Lemina to foul against the foul-crazed Newcastle midfield. He has drawn 15 fouls in his last 14 appearances for Wolves, including two in the 1-1 draw with Forest last weekend, so Sky Bet’s 7/2 for him to be fouled twice seems a bullseye.

RESULT PREDICTION: 1-1

Jones Knows’ best tips for the weekend…