Dallas Cowboys vs. Saints: Authors’ predictions for the first home game in 2024

The Cowboys are coming off a clean sweep of the Browns in Week 1, but now they get to play their first game of the year in front of a home crowd. They were 8-0 in the regular season last year at AT&T Stadium, but will that streak continue? The Saints are in top form, having also crushed the Panthers last week. What do our writers expect to happen?

When New Orleans has the ball

Play with clear eyes

The Saints have a new coach leading the offensive line this year: Klint Kubiak, son of the legendary Gary Kubiak, who came over from the 49ers. He has the same type of offense that Kyle Shanahan has used to demonize the Cowboys in recent years, and his first game in New Orleans suggested that big things are afoot.

However, Mike Zimmer has performed well against this type of offense in the past, and Kubiak was part of his team in Minnesota for four years. Zimmer knows that much of this offense relies on visuals and misdirection to confuse defenses. He needs players who play with clear vision, don’t get distracted by all the movement and misdirection, and stay true to their fundamentals. If Dallas can do that, they have more than enough talent to beat this Saints offense.

When Dallas has the ball

Distribute the ball

The Saints have enjoyed a period of dominance since current head coach Dennis Allen first started calling plays for the defense. Even last year, when the defense went through something of a makeover, they remained one of the best units in the league. But there are still holes in that defense that can be exploited, especially when it comes to pure speed.

The Cowboys have plenty of those, with CeeDee Lamb being the most obvious example. Besides him, Brandin Cooks and KaVontae Turpin can cause problems for this secondary, and even Deuce Vaughn could struggle against a slightly bigger defensive line than the average defense. Case in point: The Cowboys can beat this defense if they distribute the ball to everyone instead of just feeding their nouveau riche receiver, which would allow New Orleans to simply devote all of their resources to taking Lamb away.

Now to the predictions of your BTB authors…

Tom Ryle (0-1):

I’m one of many who got the opening game wrong, and I’m glad I did. But I still have concerns. Was the win over the Browns primarily due to their banged-up offensive line and Deshaun Watson’s ineptitude? Did the offense simply take its foot off the gas in the second half?

They need a complete game that doesn’t rely on a smothering defense. This early, we’re still trying to find teams, and that includes the Saints. They have a quarterback in Derek Carr who has been on par with the Cowboys, although that was a long time ago in NFL terms.

I can’t predict this with any real certainty as I wait to gather more data, but I’m expecting a 30-27 Dallas win in some sort of shootout where Dak proves he deserves the new contract.

Matt Holleran (0-1):

Week one went much better than expected for the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas looked dominant in their win over the Browns and their defense in particular was extremely impressive. This week the Cowboys host the New Orleans Saints in what should be a very interesting game.

I believe that Dallas’ defense will pick up right where it left off last week and cause problems for the Saints offense. The Saints have a solid defense, so I think we’ll see a similar offensive performance from the Cowboys this week as we did last week. In the end, the difference is 6.5 points and I think that’s a near perfect line.

Give me the Cowboys, 24-17.

Jess Haynie (1-0):

Dallas and New Orleans posted two of the most lopsided wins of Week 1. The Cowboys’ win was arguably more impressive, on the road against one of the league’s best defenses in Cleveland, while the Saints intimidated a terrible Panthers team at home. New Orleans reached a 9-8 record in 2023, beating bad teams and losing to good ones, and they still have the same core on their roster and coaching staff.

So if that pattern continues, Dallas should win. The Cowboys went 8-0 at home last regular season, including wins over Detroit, Philadelphia and Seattle. Whether or not TE Jake Ferguson plays is a worrying factor, but I don’t know if that will affect the outcome.

My guess is Cowboys 27, Saints 23.

Brandon Loree (0-1):

You couldn’t ask for anything better for a Week 2 matchup and a Cowboys home game. Two 2-0 teams that have shaken off the stench of last season and are hoping to change their preconceived notions and make it to the postseason. Many will remember the 2021 matchup with the Carolina Panthers when they came into AT&T Stadium 3-0. They were a cheating team. This version of the New Orleans team feels different.

Dennis Allen seems to have changed his approach as a coach and is getting along better with his players than ever before. The defense is his baby and it crushed the Panthers’ preseason hopes in Week 1. The Cowboys are a tough opponent at home, having won their last 16 games in Arlington. The momentum Dallas showed against the Cleveland Browns should carry over into a close game where Dak Prescott and Co. win.

The Cowboys win 24:20.

Mike Poland (1-0):

This game is all about pressure. The Cowboys did well last season by allowing the 10th fewest sacks. The Saints have a defense that allowed the fourth fewest sacks, making this a big mismatch. Dak will have more time to deliver, find his target, and get the ball where he needs to go.

Conversely, the Cowboys defense needs to do what it did last week and stand up to the quarterbacks. When Derek Carr was sacked two or more times in a game last season, he struggled. In six of the eight games the Saints lost, Carr was sacked two or more times. In three of those games, he failed to throw a touchdown.

The Cowboys win their first home game 28:20.

Dana Bartholomew (0-1):

The Saints absolutely crushed the Panthers last week, especially with their running game and quick passing game. I believe the key for the Cowboys this week will be shutting down Alvin Kamara on the ground and making Derek Carr uncomfortable in the pocket. The Cowboys defense proved to be very disciplined last week and I trust our LBs will keep the Saints’ successful running plays to a minimum. Although Carr was only sacked once last week, he will be under a lot more pressure against this Cowboys defense.

As for the Cowboys offense, I expect them to build on their Week 1 performance. The rookies on the offensive line have proven they can compete with the best, and Dak and Co. love putting on a show at AT&T Stadium.

I predict a 30-20 win for the Cowboys against the Saints.

Brian Martin (0-1):

Both the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints dominated their opponents in the season opener, but only one team will come away with a “W” in this Week 2 game. I fully expect it to be the Cowboys. They didn’t have the advantage of playing at home against one of the worst teams in the league like the Saints did last week. They won a tough road game and will take that confidence into their first home game of the season.

For that reason, I give the Cowboys 27-17 with another impressive performance in all three phases of the game.

Chris Halling (0-1):

The Dallas Cowboys beat the New Orleans Saints to some sense on Sunday and continued their defensive dominance. Micah Parsons finished the game with 2+ sacks and the offense got rolling against a weaker defense.

The Cowboys win 31-13.

RJ Ochoa (1-0):

New Orleans played incredible last week and I’m inclined to believe in them a little more than most. While I know the Panthers aren’t a great team, the recent data shows the Saints handled them like top teams do. That being said, I also think the Cowboys were pretty special last week and aren’t really flourishing either. I’m predicting a Dallas win in a game they’re losing over the course of the second half.

The Cowboys win 30-26.

David Howman (1-0):

I have much more faith in the Cowboys crushing the Browns than I do in the Saints crushing the Panthers. Las Vegas seems to think so too, as they have the Cowboys up by almost a full touchdown. I don’t think that’s far from the talent gap between these two teams.

However, this game attracts a refereeing crew that tends to penalize the home team far more often and in turn has one of the worst win rates of any refereeing crew. That makes me believe this game will be very uneven in the penalties category and things will ultimately be closer than they should be. Still, I trust the Cowboys to pull it out in the end, but not after we’ve all bitten our nails to the stump.

The Cowboys win 34–31.