Florida is facing a historic, deadly surge

Ryan Truchelut
| WeatherTiger

The hits keep coming.

Less than two weeks after Helene, Milton will hit the Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula.

Despite the uncertainty about exactly how Milton will unfold, there is high confidence that a destructive wave will hit Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst wave in more than 100 years to hit the Tampa Bay area. Northeast, central and southern Florida will also experience widespread wind and rain impacts.

As of 11 a.m. Sunday morning, sustained winds of up to 65 miles per hour were blowing in Milton, according to a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This flight also found that Milton’s minimum pressure was about 10 millibars lower than expected, an ominous signal that the storm was rapidly collapsing.

Rapid intensification is expected over the next 48 hours, and as usual, we don’t know exactly how high this strengthening cycle will trigger maximum winds. Nestled in a low-shear, high-humidity environment that traverses record-breaking Gulf waters still above 80 degrees, the NHC predicts Milton will strengthen into a major hurricane by late Monday.

As always, time plus golf is a dangerous combination.

Tracking Hurricane Milton to probable landfall between the Nature Coast and Marco Island

Milton is drifting east today and will continue to move slightly south of due east until it passes just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday. This is a very unusual direction of motion for a strong Gulf hurricane, one reason there are few if any appropriate historical comparisons to Milton.

Later Tuesday and into Wednesday, as Milton approaches Florida, it will accelerate east-northeast or northeast as it feels combined northward jolts from a low point on the U.S. East Coast and a ridge of high pressure over the Caribbean.

However, Milton will not move north toward the Panhandle as a west-east directed subtropical jet over the southeastern U.S. will continue to move the hurricane eastward during the week, even as it gains width as it crosses the southeastern Gulf.

Therefore, Milton is most likely expected to make landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island on Wednesday.

The models are moving slightly back south on Sunday after jogging north yesterday, and it’s just too early to pick a landfall point in this area.

The newest NHC route is basically Sarasota to Melbourne, which really means that if you’re in the greater Tampa Bay area, Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples or anywhere in the West Central and Southwest Florida I don’t know if the center of Milton will go north, south or over you.

“Wall of Water”: Milton might weaken a bit before landing; It will not reduce the life-threatening surge

Focusing on the exact forecast path is the wrong way to look at a storm like Milton because the impacts will definitely be widespread across the entire Florida Peninsula.

In this area, the primary focus of Gulf Coast Peninsula residents should be the threat posed by Milton. There is high confidence that Milton will be a strong major hurricane in the south-central Gulf on Tuesday.

As Milton turns northeast toward Florida later Tuesday and Wednesday, it will likely encounter sufficiently stronger vertical wind shear and dry air to cause a plateau or possibly even a slight decrease in maximum sustained winds before landfall.

However, these potential fluctuations in maximum sustained winds prior to landfall do not in any way result in reduced storm surge risk. Milton will be a powerful storm over the southeastern Gulf, building a life-threatening wall of water for days that extends to Florida’s Gulf Coast, regardless of what wind category Milton falls into at landfall.

The NHC’s official increase forecasts will be released shortly. In the meantime, if you are in Southwest Florida, know that a destructive surge is likely to occur on Wednesday.

There are better and worse scenarios, but there is a tough blow ahead, especially for whoever gets the southeast eyewall.

Tampa needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario of a storm surge of more than 10 feet

Still, as we know from recent experience, a hurricane that travels well north or east of Southwest Florida produces a dangerous storm surge. If you are in a coastal flood zone, prepare to leave now if your local emergency manager calls for an evacuation.

There is greater uncertainty in the Tampa Bay and West Central Florida region about whether or not a life-threatening surge will occur, but the potential for what could happen is historically poor. When the center of the hurricane passes south and east of Tampa Bay, as in Ian and Irma, offshore winds in particular ensure limited or no storm.

However, if Milton were to pass near or north of Tampa Bay, primarily onshore winds could drive a swell over Helene’s Heights and into the 10-foot range not seen in the area since 1848 and 1921.

The best I can say right now is that Tampa Bay residents need to simply prepare for Milton as if the worst case scenario will occur and hope it doesn’t. The probability of a severe surge is high enough, and the consequences of not evacuating low-lying areas are so dire that you simply can’t afford to roll the dice again if you’re lucky.

Again, unfortunately, there is very, very new evidence in West Central Florida about the consequences of not heeding local authorities.

If your flood zone is ordered to evacuate, move inland. Think about what you would do if the word came out today.

Potential flooding rains will drench South and Central Florida even before Milton approaches

Another big impact from Milton that doesn’t depend on the exact forecast is the threat of heavy rain across the Florida Peninsula, starting now and lasting through midweek.

I’ve pointed out that the threat of excessive rainfall across South and Central Florida will likely begin this weekend no matter what, and right on cue, widespread storms are spreading across the peninsula today.

This precipitation is only indirectly associated with Milton, but precipitation will still be anywhere from 2 to 5 inches+ south of a line from approximately Cedar Key to Jacksonville before the storm arrives, with the risk of flash flooding greatest in South Florida early in the week is.

With dry air potentially moving into the southern half of Milton as it makes landfall on Wednesday, the greatest risk of excessive rainfall from the hurricane itself will most likely be in central or northeast Florida, even if landfall occurs further south.

Recent experience shows us once again that we need to take the threat of flooding associated with hurricanes just as seriously as storm surge and wind. Therefore, we must assess the situation in low-lying and freshwater flood-prone areas such as Orlando, Tampa, and even the Jacksonville metropolitan areas.

The northwestern edge of the heavy rain threat will fall over the Big Bend, and the central and western panhandle is expected to be mostly dry.

The risk of wind is most uncertain, but you should be prepared for damaging gusts even inland

Coastal and inland wind impacts also represent a potentially major problem for Central and South Florida, although the problem with the least forecast certainty at this time.

Due to interaction with a subtropical jet stream approaching and crossing Florida, Milton’s peak winds could be on the decline just before landfall on Wednesday, though likely at the expense of tropical storm-force and hurricane-force wind gusts over a large area.

As the NHC forecast discussion suggests, the complicated jet dynamics may well result in a stronger “weak” (in this case northwest) side of Milton than one would expect, even if the storm were to drop a category or two from its own Category 3 or 4 peak intensity.

We cannot yet accurately assess the potential wind impacts in specific locations, but residents of coastal areas from the Nature Coast to the south and throughout Florida’s inland peninsula should do everything they can now to prepare their property for high winds, particularly in areas who were brutalized by Helene two weeks ago.

The bottom line is that nothing good is happening with Milton today, and I still hate that it is happening so much. We are facing a heightened threat that has been unique to hurricane history, with only two Category 3 or higher landfalls occurring in Florida in 1926, 1950, 2004 and 2005.

Whether or not 2024 makes this list is immaterial to the near certainty that Helene and Milton will likely go down in history as one of the most devastating one-two punches of all time in the entire state.

We are all already exhausted. It’s you, it’s me. This is reality and I know it.

Unfortunately, it is also a reality that we must respond, prepare and evacuate if necessary, as the storm surge, rain and wind threats posed by Milton require our final comprehensive measures to protect life and property.

I will keep you updated with updates throughout the storm, which will also pass. Keep watching the sky.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company that provides forensic meteorological expert services as well as agricultural and hurricane forecast subscription services. Visit Weathertiger.com for more information. Email Truchelut at [email protected].

Tracking Hurricane Milton to probable landfall between the Nature Coast and Marco Island

“Wall of Water”: Milton might weaken a bit before landing; It will not reduce the life-threatening surge

Tampa needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario of a storm surge of more than 10 feet

Potential flooding rains will drench South and Central Florida even before Milton approaches

The risk of wind is most uncertain, but you should be prepared for damaging gusts even inland

Related Posts

Leave a Reply Cancel reply