Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Best Bets – College Football Week 8

Prepare for a fantastic evening of C-USA football as the New Mexico State Aggies welcome the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to Las Cruces, NM.

Tonight’s matchup represents a quick turnaround for both sides, and my Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State predictions are that this turnaround will produce some offensive fireworks.

Read on as I explain why I like the free college football picks over for October 15th.

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State prediction and best bet

My best choice
Over 48 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

We should see fireworks in Las Cruces on Tuesday night when the New Mexico State Aggies host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs for a C-USA match.

Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t think twice about playing the under. Defense is the Bulldogs’ calling card. They have the best rushing defense in the conference, the fifth-best pass defense and give up the fewest points per game (21.6).

The Bulldogs also score on QBs (2.25 sacks per game) and have held their opponents to 23 points or fewer in four of their five games. That’s a strong defense they possess, and this Bulldogs’ defense faces one of the worst offenses in C-USA.

But here’s the thing: Tuesday night won’t be a typical game for either side. New Mexico State has a slight edge because it had at least an extra day to prepare. The Aggies’ last game was Wednesday, but the Bulldogs played Thursday and will have to spend an extra day of travel.

That could hurt the Bulldogs. I understand that the state of New Mexico sucks; The Aggies commit too many turnovers and their offense can’t find the end zone, but New Mexico State runs the ball quite well. Backup quarterback Parker Awad is competent enough if Wake Forest transfer quarterback Santino Marucci can’t go.

In comparison, New Mexico State can’t stop the run or pass, which will be a problem. The Aggies have allowed 48+ in three of their last four, and Bulldogs freshman quarterback Evan Bullock caught five touchdown passes against Middle Tennessee State last week. We know they can and will score the football.

That’s why I play the over. The Aggies won’t stop the Bulldogs no matter how many days they have to prepare. Louisiana Tech has given up 21+ in three of its last four games as its defense lacked focus in the second half. New Mexico State can put points on the board, so get the over with a reasonable total.

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Match Game (SGP)

Over 48.5

New Mexico State +14.5 (alt. spread)

New Mexico State is 0-5-0 ATS in their last five games. They’ve been terrible, but Louisiana Tech has lost two of its last three as favorites, and the Aggies should cover the alternative spread of +14.5.

The Aggies struggled at times to score in the first 24 minutes, but are among the top second-half scoring teams in the country (17). That number rises to 18.5 at home, and they face a defense that gave up 12.8 points in the second half, which rises to 17 on the road.

That’s why I believe the Aggies can cover. The Bulldogs are the favorite at 2-2-0 ATS this season, but their lack of recovery and preparation time, coupled with their lack of defensive focus in the second half, leads me to pick the alternate points.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State odds

Live odds for Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State opening odds

• Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State spread: New Mexico State +10.5
• Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Moneyline: Louisiana Tech -410, New Mexico State +330
• Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Over/Under: 48.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State spread and over/under analysis

• The spread has hardly changed since the opening. Louisiana Tech is 3-2-0 ATS while New Mexico State is 1-5-0 against the number.
• The duel last season at Louisiana Tech was close. New Mexico State scored 17 unanswered 2H points, and even though the Aggies lost the game, they covered the number.
• The over/under look-ahead totals started at 52.5 (-110), but rose again to 48.5 (-110). At some of our top sportsbooks, that number has dropped as low as 48 (-110).

What you need to know about the Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State betting trend

Louisiana Tech has reached the over in three of its last four road games (+1.90 units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State.

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