According to a Trump poll, Pennsylvania voters are evenly split between Harris

A few days before Election Day on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states that could determine the winner, according to a new exclusive USA TODAY poll /Suffolk shows.

According to a national poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could shed light on where the state is headed, also showed a 48%-48% tie. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania frontrunner, leaned slightly toward Trump: 50% said they supported him, while Harris said 48%. The results of the district surveys are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the statewide and statewide data show that Pennsylvania is “really a mess.”

“We have all the results within the margin of error… it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes – the most among swing states. Both candidates campaigned in the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point. He defeated both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump won in 2016.

The state is part of the “Blue Wall,” a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections until Trump won three of them in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Undecided and third-party voters

Most voters in Pennsylvania have already decided who they want to support, but because the race is so close, the small percentage of undecided could influence election results in the state — and across the country.

These could also be third-party candidates. In Pennsylvania, there are two options on the ballot alongside Trump and Harris: Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. They each received 1% or less support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

But if the Pennsylvania election is as close as the polls suggest, a candidate with 0.5% could tip the scales for Harris or Trump, Paleologos said.

Jason Danner, 38, is one of the few undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

While Danner said he believes Trump is a good president, he has concerns that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “does not appear to respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he fears that Harris would continue Biden’s policies.

When Danner, a registered Democrat, finally entered the voting booth, he said he would “most likely” vote for Harris. But he will do so reluctantly.

“I have voted my whole life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I feel like I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become so apathetic to our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote but will leave the presidential ballot box blank. After voting for Biden in the last election cycle, Doyle said he could not accept that Harris was not selected in a primary.

“We needed an honest primary and that was taken away from us,” he said. “I can’t bear to vote for the candidate whose party thinks it’s okay to snub voters like that.”

Doyle, a 12-year veteran of office, said his politics are most aligned with the Libertarian Party, but he believes casting a third party vote would be a waste of his ballot. In 2020, he decided against endorsing Trump at the last minute after “remembering all the negative things he said about veterans.”

Although he supports Democrats’ economic policies, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“I see fewer and fewer things that actually help me,” he said.

The gender gap

Nationally, Harris is the clear leader among women, and Trump has gained a similar lead among men.

And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said.

Among men in Pennsylvania, Trump is up 20 percentage points, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% lead over Trump among women (57% to 39%). By comparison, Trump has a 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris has a 17-point lead among women.

“Where the rubber meets the road is the couple’s household,” Paleologos said. “It’s the married women and married men who are struggling with this choice because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights were the central reason she already voted for Harris. “I have two daughters and that is my big problem,” she said.

“I terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be completely different and most likely not a good path,” said Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mother of three children, ages 11, 8 and 6 , who lives in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.

Although Keshgegian voted for President Biden in 2020 because she thought he was the best choice, she said she would prefer “someone younger and more attuned to a change in government, as opposed to the same old white men.” she. She feels more connected to Harris, who she sees as more reliable, compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump may be able to lower prices and she understands people might vote for him for that reason. But she can’t come to terms with his other qualities. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I would rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

This calculation is different for others.

Luanne McDonald of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed feelings” about the election and views both Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. McDonald, who describes himself as an independent, disagrees with Trump’s stance on abortion or women’s rights but thinks Harris is “weak and wishy-washy.”

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5th. When it comes to the issues that matter most to her — the economy and law and order — McDonald said she believes Trump will do a better job.

“When he was president, I could buy a babka at Whole Foods, but I can’t afford that now,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I’ve never felt poor before.”

Not surprisingly, more than 70% of people who rated the current economic situation as bad said they supported Trump. Harris outperformed Trump among those who believed the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape.

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump to the bottom of the list.

Huhn, who owns a painting and wallpaper business in Chalfont, about 30 miles north of Philadelphia, said economic issues are his top priority. “As a self-employed person, nothing affects me more than what the government is doing to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can succeed.

Cheaper energy “will help drive down the cost of goods, less regulation will also help drive business growth,” he said. “I like Republicans because of their more conservative views on spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt of Berks County, Pennsylvania, describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

“I don’t agree with some of Trump’s policies,” Borchelt, 44, said, referring to the former president’s tax and manufacturing policies. “But if you don’t get over the hurdle of accepting the results of an election, you can’t take part in a democratic election.”

Trump is facing multiple criminal charges over his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has refused to say he would accept the results of the 2024 election.

Borchelt has never voted for Trump – he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson in 2016 and supported Biden in 2020. This year, he said, he hopes Trump will lose and politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name-calling and the violence and ugliness.”

“I’m kind of sick of it,” he said.

Undecided and third-party voters

The gender gap

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