The Electoral College map projector switches states back to Kamala Harris

An election forecaster’s Electoral College map, which does not list any states, has swayed Michigan toward Kamala Harris.

RealClearPolitics’ “No Toss-Up” map — which clearly gives every state a Republican or Democratic edge, even if they’re neck and neck — shifted the Wolverine State from Donald Trump to Harris on Tuesday.

The no-toss-up map basically assigns states, or more specifically each state’s Electoral College votes, to a candidate based on the polling average, regardless of the gap. The “no toss-up” map gives Trump 297 electoral votes to Harris’ 241. Taking toss-ups into account, Trump still leads 219 to 215, with 104 electoral votes up for grabs in eight states and one district.

The key swing state of Michigan, with 15 votes in the Electoral College, switched from “lean Democrat” to “lean Republican” on October 9th. Currently, it is the only contested state on the No Toss-Up map that leans Democratic. Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump could reach 270 Electoral College votes if he defeats Harris in Michigan and the Sun Belt swing states Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

The battleground states of Wisconsin and Nevada also switched from a more Democratic party to a more Republican party on the no-toss-up map this month, with Pennsylvania switching to a more Republican party on September 29.

According to the RealClearPolitics poll, Harris has an average lead of 0.5 points (48.2 percent to 47.7 percent) over Trump in Michigan, making it a mixed-majority state.

The six other key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as the 2nd Congressional Districts of Minnesota and Nebraska are also listed as toss-ups in RealClearPolitics’ Electoral College ratings map.

The former president leads in Arizona by an average of 2.2 points, Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5), North Carolina (1), Pennsylvania (0.6) and Wisconsin (0.6).

An AtlasIntel poll of 983 likely voters in Michigan showed Trump with a 1.2-point lead over Harris in a poll that included Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (49.3 percent to 48.1). The poll was conducted Oct. 25-29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld poll of Michigan voters found that 49 percent supported Trump, while 48 percent supported Harris.

“With one week until Election Day, the race remains back and forth,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

“The poll found that the key voting bloc of union household voters in Michigan voted 55 percent to 41 percent for Harris, while nonunion household members voted 52 percent to 46 percent for Trump.”

The Emerson College Polling Michigan poll was conducted Oct. 25-27 among 1,000 likely voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research poll of 400 likely Michigan voters conducted October 23-27 gave Harris a 5-point lead (51.7 percent to 46.6). The results have an error rate of plus/minus 4.9 percent.