Early trends suggest Donald Trump will win the US election, but the final result could still be in Kamala Harris’s favor; Here’s how

Initial trends indicate that former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump secured an initial lead over Vice President Kamala Harris with around 150 electoral votes. However, political analysts warn that this early advantage may not reveal the final outcome as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could still turn the tide.
The phenomenon, often referred to as “fata morgana” in elections, is expected to play a central role in shaping public perception on election night, particularly in battleground states where idiosyncrasies in vote counting can paint misleading pictures.
What gave Trump the chance to claim a “stolen election”?
In 2020, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin exhibited what experts call a “red mirage.” They showed Trump leading on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots heavily favored by Democrats were counted, which ultimately pushed Joe Biden into the lead.
Trump’s team used this pattern to push claims of a stolen election, even though the result was simply a consequence of the state’s election laws and mail-in voting trends. Similar momentum is expected this week, but there is a shift as in-person vote counting occurs in states like North Carolina and Georgia.
Also read: Key takeaways from 2024 US election results: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris secure early victories as focus turns to key battlegrounds
Why declaring victory is complex
As ballots arrive, Trump’s campaign is reportedly planning to declare victory should he cross the critical mark of 270 electoral votes – a move that experts say may be premature given the complexities of voting in various states.
Because a large portion of Democratic voters live in heavily populated urban areas where vote processing tends to be slower, delayed counts could greatly impact final counts in the days following Election Day. Because of these differences in vote reporting, some states, particularly Pennsylvania and Arizona, will find themselves in a lengthy counting process as more mail-in ballots arrive.
What delays will occur?
Each battleground state has its own schedule and rules for processing votes, and these could impact the presumed winner on election night. Pennsylvania, for example, prohibits election officials from counting mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, potentially delaying results for days as Democrats’ mail-in votes gradually reduce Trump’s advantage in in-person voting. A new law aims to ease concerns by requiring counties to disclose the number of outstanding mail-in ballots by midnight to prevent misinformation.
In Wisconsin, where voting is centralized in major cities, a large collection of mail-in ballots early in the morning could tip the scales in Harris’ favor, just as they did for Biden in 2020. North Carolina, known for its extensive voter canvassing, could also keep Americans guessing for days as mail-in and foreign ballots continue to be counted after election night.
In states like Arizona, where mail-in voting is very popular, early results could show Harris in the lead because of early voting and mail-in voting, although the addition of in-person ballots could tip the numbers toward Trump. This trend could reverse once all mail-in ballots — including those cast on Election Day — are counted in the following days.
Nevada, notorious for its lengthy counting process in 2020, could see a faster count this year as new rules allow early processing of ballots weeks before Election Day. However, Nevada’s approval of late-arriving mail-in ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 may delay a final result because of the history of late Democratic ballots being counted.
See also: 2024 US election results live update