It looks like Donald Trump will win the election

Donald Trump could do it. It’s too early to tell; We may not know until the middle of next year, or whenever an antediluvian state finishes counting by hand. Plus, Electoral College madness means Trump could surge in the popular vote and still lose over Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (the opposite of Hillary). But consider this:

At first he easily conquered Florida, including Miami-Dade. Joe Biden won this district in 2020; Hillary Clinton prevailed in 2016 by almost 30 points. What made the difference? Trump does well with Latino voters, presumably men.

Second, there is evidence that he has gained ground among the wealthy in Virginia, which is said to be a lockdown for Kamala; Graduated wasps are their people.

Third, he appears to be winning Georgia, which could have been competitive and certainly suggests the Sun Belt is safe (Texas is also out of play). Fourth, an NBC exit poll gives him a six-point lead among independents in the critical state of Pennsylvania.

Election polls generally suggest that “the future of democracy” is a key issue, which breathless television commentators took as a good sign for Harris. However, many Republicans believe that Democrats stole the 2020 election, so they may also be concerned about this issue.

The other important issue is the economy, and Trump does better here than Kamala for obvious reasons (e.g. inflation). No wonder election betting seems to slightly favor Republicans New York Times and Decision Desk HQ.

But yes, it’s a long night ahead of us and none of us know anything for sure. It’s a joy to watch British TV hosts divulge the latest thing they’ve read on CNN as if it were a personal insight (“I now predict that Harris will conquer Vermont and the Pope will conquer the Vatican”).

But what we can say decisively at this point is that of the four options: Trump easy win, narrow win; Harris wins narrowly, wins easily – Harris’ easy win is off the table. Despite January 6th, a rape trial, “eating the pets,” and a comedian calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash.” I wonder if Joe Biden might have done better?