Most winnable Big Ten home games

Oregon coach Dan Lanning is preparing a talented football team that will compete for the Big Ten championship and a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff. With the 2024 season starting in about two weeks, this is a good time to look at the schedule and identify games that are winnable, as well as games that will pose more of a challenge. Let’s start with the conference’s most winnable home games, in order of the schedule.

WINNABLE: The Ducks host the Michigan State Spartans on October 4

These teams have played each other seven times, with Oregon winning four times and Michigan State winning three times. The last meeting was a defensive battle that ended in a 7-6 victory for the Ducks. Given the explosiveness of Oregon’s offense, this next meeting will likely be a higher-scoring affair. One unique feature of this game is that the Ducks will face a coach they’ve seen before: Jonathan Smith, former coach of the Oregon State Beavers. In terms of rankings and according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI), the Spartans are projected to be No. 17 in the conference. Despite the familiarity Smith may have with Oregon, we think this is a contest the Ducks have the most chance of winning.

WINNABLE: Oregon hosts Illinois on October 26

Oregon has only played the Fighting Illini three times, the first being in 1970 and the last in 1995. The Ducks have won two games and Illinois has won one. Illinois has a rich history, being a founding member of the Big Ten Conference and boasting five national championships and 15 Big Ten championships, although none of those titles have come in recent memory.

Illinois’ coach is Bret Bielema, who had success in the Big Ten during his time as head coach at Wisconsin before making stops at Arkansas and the NFL. He was hired at Illinois in December 2020 and has only one winning season to his name. Additionally, Illinois is ranked 16th in the Big Ten’s FPI. However, Coach Bielema is excited about the expansion of the conference and is looking forward to playing Oregon.

“I’m really excited about our conference,” Bielema told the press on media day. “I know a lot of people have a different opinion on expansion, but for me as head coach this year, we have a game on the East Coast playing Rutgers and Penn State and then a game on the West Coast playing Oregon. We’re playing a game in the middle of our stadium, Memorial Stadium, against Michigan, our 100th anniversary game.”

Despite his enthusiasm, it’s unlikely the Fighting Illini will be able to keep up with the Ducks at Autzen Stadium. This is another winnable game for Oregon.

WINNABLE: Oregon and Maryland meet on November 9

The Ducks and Terrapins have never met on the football field before and this could be an interesting matchup. Remember, the Ducks will face Michigan at the Big House on November 2nd. Disappointment after such a spectacular matchup is a real possibility, although coach Lanning will do everything he can to get his team ready for the Maryland matchup.

The Terrapins were members of the Atlantic Coast Conference for 62 years before joining the Big Ten in 2014. However, Maryland has yet to win a conference title, finishing 2023 with a record of 4-5. Overall, the Terrapins finished 2023 with a record of 8-5 and a 31-13 victory over Auburn in the Magic City Bowl, which created some excitement for the upcoming season.

A major focus for six-year coach Mike Locksley is finding a quarterback to replace four-year starter Taulia Tagovailoa. His ability to find a replacement will likely define the season for the Terps. On the positive side, Maryland has a top-20 defensive backfield. They return three players who have been on the field for 300 snaps or more and have signed cornerback Jalen Huskey from the transfer portal. Additionally, Maryland is rated 8 in the Big Ten’s FPI.

This could be a closer game than many expect. The fact that Oregon has a highly rated defense and the game is in Eugene tells us what we need to know to help the Ducks win another game.

Next, we look at Oregon’s schedule and find three away games that have the highest chances of winning.