Today’s best MLB home run picks (target Gunnar Henderson, Willy Adames on Sunday)

If you’re looking for a fun special bet for Sunday’s Major League Baseball action, look no further than a home run special bet!

Although they’re difficult to predict, home run betting also offers pretty good odds if you choose the right player. Plus, there are plenty of ways to focus on specific pitching matchups, ballparks, etc. to find the best home run options.

My goal on Sunday is to sign two shortstops with big power and home runs.

Opportunities via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gunnar Henderson hits a home run (+400)

Baltimore Orioles All-Star Gunnar Henderson has been tormenting the Boston Red Sox in this series, hitting three hits and two home runs in three games. He has hit a home run in three of his last four games, giving him 32 home runs this season.

Henderson has a perfect matchup on Sunday against struggling cutter Crawford, who has a 9.75 ERA in his last five starts.

Crawford has allowed 27 home runs in 24 appearances this season, including 13 home runs in his last five starts!

Henderson is a sure bet to get to the struggling right-hander, and even if he doesn’t, Boston’s bullpen has been awful this season, ranking in the bottom five in the league in ERA and allowing 61 home runs.

I want to get Henderson at +400 to keep him hot in this series.

Willy Adames hits a home run (+380)

For this bet on the second home run, I’m switching to the National League, since right-hander Willy Adames of the Milwaukee Brewers also has a favorable opponent available on Sunday.

The Brewers face Cleveland Guardians right-hander Ben Lively, who has allowed 21 home runs in 21 appearances in 2024, including six home runs in his last four starts and at least one in seven of his eight starts since July 1.

Adames is one of the few hitters who has reverse splits, meaning he’s hitting better against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters this season. Against right-handed hitters, Adames is hitting .271 on 20 of his 22 home runs and has an OPS of .838.

Lively has struggled in his last three appearances, with his ERA going from 3.44 to 3.71, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Adames or another Brewer hits him with a home run this afternoon.

The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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