Best and worst case scenarios for the 2024 season

As Michigan State football season begins with many different possible outcomes, let’s take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for the upcoming season.

Best-case scenario for MSU football season

There is a world where the Spartans are not only a little more capable than outside projections, but they also end up being a little better than most of their opponents on a schedule that looks to have seven exciting games.

The hope for such a season begins with sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles, a dynamic player with a knack for big plays and smart decisions who gives the Spartans a dual-threat power they’ve never had at the quarterback position.

Chiles won’t turn 19 until the second game and had never started a game before this Friday, so size without lapses is an unreasonable demand. That’s true of any college quarterback. The question isn’t whether Chiles can develop into a game-winning quarterback. The question is whether he will be this season. If he’s a relatively accurate passer, reads the ball correctly most of the time and becomes a problem for the defense with his legs, especially in short-yardage situations and in the red zone, then the prognosis for MSU’s season changes.

There’s also a chance that MSU’s offensive line — which hasn’t been a strength of the program for nearly a decade — will come into its own with an All-American transfer center and some younger players just entering their elite years.

MSU should have enough playmakers on offense — tight end, running back and probably receiver — to make the offense work. The question here, as with quarterback, is whether they have a ready-to-play player who can make a difference. Maybe they have a tight end in the form of transfer Jack Velling. It seems too early to ask that of true freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh. Maybe a healthier Nate Carter will show some of that in a functioning offense. We’ll see.

The defense, which should be strong at linebacker and has some experienced players up front and back, could be solid enough under new coordinator Joe Rossi.

And then there’s the schedule, which has many teams asking questions, just like MSU.

One imagines a 4-0 start is possible if MSU wins at Maryland, where the Terrapins have potential quarterback issues. The Boston College game in Week 4 might feel like a neutral field, given the number of MSU graduates from the East Coast likely in attendance. It’s a winnable game, definitely a neck-and-neck.

Then, during a nasty four-game streak, there’s a home game against Iowa that follows a week off. Even if MSU loses the other three games during that ordeal, a 5-3 finish in November isn’t impossible.

Then it’s Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers. Three home games. Four games where it’s probably neck and neck or better. If MSU stays healthy enough and has a little more firepower than the bottom half of the Big Ten, there’s a path to 9-3. That’s the ceiling. But plausible.

MORE: Couch: Jonathan Smith chose MSU because he has the chance to win big and live the life he wants

Worst-case scenario for MSU football season

It’s pretty much the opposite of the best-case scenario. It turns out that Chiles is talented, but he needs time. That every exciting play he makes is often followed by a costly mistake. That the team isn’t deep enough to handle injuries, and that the offensive line is a unit that doesn’t apply the pressure needed to get the tough yards. And that the playmakers on offense, while good players, don’t scare anyone, making it easier to scheme against the Spartans. And it’s the same on defense.

The schedule that seemed to be full of hopeless games turns out to be less hopeless. All it takes is for a few teams to be better than expected. Maryland and Rutgers, perhaps. And for the Boston College game to go in BC’s favor and for Iowa to be a little too much physically for MSU’s team in terms of the lineup.

MSU could just as easily be 2-6 in November, after another disheartening loss at Michigan, looking for confidence and four games that can go either way. That’s the path to 4-8, which is probably the lower limit. But possible.

MORE: Couch: MSU-Florida Atlantic football season prediction through Thanksgiving (and a bowl game)

Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

Best-case scenario for MSU football season

Worst-case scenario for MSU football season

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