Aaron Nola stumbles again, raising questions about rotation reshuffle in October

PHILADELPHIA — It took Aaron Nola 15 minutes to get going Friday night. It felt quicker, because he didn’t allow a single hit in the first four innings. He wasn’t at his best. But he was effective. Then, in the fifth inning, he allowed six runs on two three-run home runs. Those 15 minutes spoiled everything.

“I left a couple of bad pitches over the plate,” Nola said after an 11-3 loss. “I mean, two hanging curveballs.”

This was the first September game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets with both teams in playoff position. It ended with the Phillies using an infielder, Kody Clemens, as their pitcher. That was because Nola was unable to complete five innings for the second consecutive game. He turned the ball over to Rob Thomson with one out in the fourth inning.

It was a bad night.

The Phillies are charging toward another October of postseason baseball in South Philly, and the possibility that the Mets could be there is a surprise. The National League East is still undecided, but the Mets are only focused on securing a playoff spot as a wild card. The Phillies have the best record in the sport.

If anything, they ended Friday feeling a little better about the big picture. JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber were back in the field without issues. And Alec Bohm, who had missed two weeks with a left hand injury, packed up for a trip to the minors. He will begin a two-game rehab assignment at Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Saturday. The Phillies intend to return him to action on Monday.

“He’s feeling good,” Thomson said. “He’s confident. So that’s good.”

Nola didn’t feel good about his night. He had never allowed two three-run home runs in a start, let alone in one inning. He became the first Phillies pitcher since Connor Brogdon in 2021 to allow two three-run home runs in one inning.

September has always been Nola’s worst month. His career ERA is higher in September than any other month. Before the Phillies broke through in 2022, Nola’s September slumps were emblematic of the organization’s weaknesses. But over the last two postseasons, he’s proven he can rise to bigger moments in October.

The finish is not always nice.

Nola had a similar streak last September. He failed to complete five innings in three consecutive starts from September 2-15, 2023. He had a 5.47 ERA in five starts last September. The entire season was an uphill struggle, then Nola delivered in October.

A two-start hiatus in September pushed Nola’s ERA up to 3.62, ranking him 22nd among the 47 pitchers with 120 innings in the National League.

Nola, of course, expects more. And so do the Phillies.

“I just have to rule out the big inning,” Nola said. “The fifth inning was obviously a big inning, and it got too shaky. … I’m just going to keep going like I always do and try to finish as best as I can. Get this over with quickly and have a good week before my next outing. That’s really all I can do.”

When asked how confident he was that Nola would be back to form before October, Thomson was unflinching: “I’m not worried. I mean, we’re not there. I’ll say that until we are there. But I think his performance in October showed that he can bounce back.”

“I’m not worried.”

Rob Thomson says he has more than enough confidence in Aaron Nola’s ability to bounce back in time for postseason games. pic.twitter.com/Ov2NMacyE5

— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) 14 September 2024

The difference this time is that the Phillies have to consider different scenarios. Assuming they have a first-round bye, the Phillies have five days off to adjust their rotation. Nola is doing better with a little more rest. Maybe that plays a role in shaping the rotation.

There’s another variable to consider: Cristopher Sánchez, who would start either a Game 3 or 4, has performed much better at Citizens Bank Park than away. His ERA at home (2.11) is more than three runs lower than his away record (5.13). He’s pitched 30 more innings at home this season. Perhaps it’s nothing more than a coincidence; Sánchez has been worse at home than away in 2023. But his ERA at home of 2.11 ranks fourth among all MLB pitchers with at least 10 home starts this season.

Since Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Phillies have had two starters with lower home ERAs: Zack Wheeler’s 1.85 in 2022 and Cliff Lee’s 1.94 in 2011. (Wheeler is back at the top in 2024 with a 2.31 home ERA.)

It’s compelling enough to at least make the Phillies think. Team officials have said that kind of decision is not at the forefront of daily discussions. Later this month, when postseason participation is sealed, they’ll have time to think about October.

But the Phillies have been impressed with Sánchez’s durability; his fastball velocity in two starts this month is 95.8 mph. In July and August, his average was 94 mph. He’s throwing harder now than he has all season. He’s surpassed his previous high in innings pitched without ill effects.

“He’s got a rubber arm,” Thomson said earlier this week. “He’s in great shape and much stronger than he’s ever been. Our strength and conditioning coaches and our nutritionists have done a really good job. He’s maintained his weight well and that’s a big thing for him.”

If Sánchez were used in Game 2, he would be able to pitch at home. It would also separate the right- and left-handed hitters in the Phillies’ rotation. But that might be too drastic an adjustment. Nola is in the first year of a $172 million contract. He is the club’s longest-tenured player. The Phillies have enormous confidence in him.

If they had the choice, he was their starter in Game 2. He made all of his 2023 postseason starts at home, posting a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings.

That counts for something too.

These are real problems for the Phillies. They know their four postseason starters. All four have been dominant at times this season. Most teams can’t boast of such a situation in October.

Until then, it’s about getting there in the best shape possible. Kolby Allard will return to play as the starter on Saturday; the Phillies will demote right-handed reliever Max Lazar to make room on the roster. The Phillies will rotate smaller players over the next two weeks to make sure their top pitchers are fresh.

If the Phillies stay in the rotation, Nola could have up to three more starts. He’ll have to be better than he was Friday night, when the crowd was packed and the tension was building.

“I think,” Thomson said, “the first two innings took their toll on him.”

(Photo: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)