Alvin Kamara tips, predictions and best bets for Thursday Night Football

The Caesars Superdome will host Thursday Night Football in Week 7, with the New Orleans Saints looking to snap back from a four-game series with a win over the visiting Denver Broncos.

New Orleans is dealing with a number of injuries to key offensive starters, and my NFL picks for Alvin Kamara odds expect Denver’s defense to keep the dynamic running back in check come October 17th.

Be sure to check out our Broncos vs. Saints predictions before placing your bets!

Alvin Kamara TNF player prop selection

Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.

Alvin Kamara TNF prop man

My best choice
Under 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel)

My analysis

New Orleans Saints veteran running back Alvin Kamara has either missed practice time or had limited practice participation due to a long list of injuries leading up to each of the last three games, and that is starting to impact his statistical performance.

Kamara overcame a rib injury and a hip injury in Weeks 4 and 5 before suffering a hand injury before the game against Atlanta last week. The star RB appeared on Monday’s estimated injury report as a limited participant with a hand injury.

He’s also not the only New Orleans starter to suffer injuries on offense. Quarterback Derek Carr (oblique), right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), center Lucas Patrick (chest) and wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) were all expected to be unavailable for practice Monday, while tight end Taysom Hill (rib) was also listed as limited.

The injury-poor offense will make it easier for Kamara to limit himself in the short week, and as mentioned, he has been unproductive over the last two weeks. Kamara accounted for just 66 rushing yards (2.8 per tote) on his 24 carries while catching 11 of 16 targets for 64 receiving yards.

Additionally, Kamara hasn’t managed a single rush for double-digit yards in the last two weeks, posting an elusive 0.0 rating against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, according to PFF.

Now for the kicker: The Denver Broncos have withstood the run well – giving RBs the eighth-fewest yards per carry, the ninth-lowest EPA per rush, and the 10th in rush stop win rate.

The New Orleans stop unit has also been off the map during its four-game losing streak, giving up the second-most yards per play, the eighth-highest EPA per play, and the highest EPA per rush. Denver should be successful on offense and win the battle of possession.

I expect Kamara and the Saints to be in big trouble on Thursday night in The Big Easy.

Alvin Kamara TNF same game play

Under 110.5 rushing + receiving yards

25+ receiving yards

4+ receptions

Kamara has been more consistent – ​​and dangerous – in the air in recent weeks. He converted his 25 targets into 18 balls for 106 yards and posted a 48.1% target percentage per route over the last three games.

The 29-year-old fullback also enters Week 6 with at least 25 receiving yards in five of six games and four or more receiving yards in four of his last six games.

There’s also a chance the Saints struggle to run the ball on Thursday, and as mentioned, Kamara was down in consecutive games. I expect New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to try to get Kamara involved early and often through the air to mitigate Denver’s pass rush.

After all, the Broncos rank third in blitz rate, fourth in pressure percentage and first in pass rush win rate.

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