Azerbaijan will become a guarantor of Europe’s energy security by increasing gas exports

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that the contract with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will not be extended. He stated that this problem has been resolved for Ukraine, but the country will continue to transit gas from other Russian exporters.

According to Bloomberg information, Europe’s current gas reserves may not be sufficient in winter if unexpected problems arise with gas transit. In addition, Europe’s reserves of compressed gas are limited. This summer, imports of this type into the region fell by 15 to 20 percent because Asian countries bought it at cheaper prices.

The contract between Gazprom and Ukraine on natural gas transit expires at the end of this year. This raises the question: how will Europe meet its gas needs?

One solution could be Azerbaijan’s gas exports, which form a bridge between Europe and Asia. Azerbaijan transports gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is part of this corridor, now has a transmission capacity of 12 billion cubic meters per year. From January to June this year, Azerbaijan exported 6.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, an increase of 0.7 billion cubic meters or 12.3% compared to the same period in 2023.

In total, Azerbaijan’s gas exports in the first half of the year amounted to 12.7 billion cubic meters, up 6% year-on-year. During this period, Azerbaijan sold 5 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and 1.3 billion cubic meters to Georgia. Exports to both countries remained stable year-on-year.

Around 2.8 billion cubic metres of gas were transported to Turkey via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which is the same as the previous year.

Completed in October 2020, the TAP is 878 kilometers long, of which 550 kilometers run through northern Greece, 215 kilometers through Albania, 105 kilometers under the Adriatic Sea and 8 kilometers through Italy. Since December 31, 2020, Azerbaijani gas has been reaching consumers in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria.

Natural gas from the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan is transported to Turkey via the South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) and TANAP. Commercial transportation to Turkey via TANAP began on June 30, 2018.

Azerbaijan, which has rich energy resources, plans to significantly increase its gas exports to Europe in the coming years. As a major player in the European energy market, Azerbaijan aims to increase its role in the continent’s energy security. By prioritizing natural gas exports and increasing the use of solar and wind energy to generate electricity, Azerbaijan is strengthening its long-term economic ties with Europe. The “Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Energy Partnership between the European Union and the Republic of Azerbaijan” signed last year lays the foundation for robust energy cooperation and addresses the EU’s natural gas and energy security needs.

In conclusion, Europe’s energy landscape is facing uncertainty with the impending expiry of the Ukraine-Gazprom contract on Russian gas transit. Azerbaijan is emerging as a key player, significantly increasing its gas exports to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor. With the TAP and TANAP infrastructure, Azerbaijan is not only strengthening Europe’s energy security but also its role as a major energy supplier. The country’s commitment to expanding its gas exports and investing in renewable energy underlines its strategic importance in the European energy market. The recent Memorandum of Understanding between Azerbaijan and the European Union further consolidates this partnership and paves the way for increased cooperation and long-term energy stability for Europe.

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