Best bet for Sunday Night Football

The 2024 season debut of “Sunday Night Football” could turn out to be the best episode of the year.

The Rams will face the Lions in Detroit in a rematch of last year’s one-point NFC Divisional Round playoff game.

Matt Stafford returns to Ford Field once again, while Jared Goff looks to outdo former head coach Sean McVay in back-to-back games.

One underrated storyline to watch on Sunday Night Football is age-related. The Rams and Lions were two of the youngest rosters in the NFL last season by snap weighting.

Detroit is rebuilding its secondary with two draft picks (Terrion Arnold from Alabama and Ennis Rakestraw from Missouri).

Los Angeles is expected to significantly rejuvenate its defense after the team used its first six picks to sign five defensive players, including four front-seven players, to replace the now-retired Aaron Donald.

There is an upward trend in these squads due to the young talent, which will likely lead to an entertaining game of football.

Nevertheless, the home team has the edge in my prediction for Sunday’s showdown.

Odds for Rams vs. Lions

Prediction for Rams vs. Lions

(8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

The Lions ranked second in total defense against the rush last season, but 27th in total defense against the pass.

This was thanks in part to an electrifying offense that took an early lead and forced opponents into passing situations.

The bigger problem, however, was a lifeless secondary that couldn’t defend outside the slot (Brian Branch was solid).

Still, I see a path for Detroit to improve their defense.

It starts with DJ Reader, a free agent signing from Cincinnati who can only help in the running game.

He’s a force of nature when it comes to clogging the middle – the Bengals ranked last in YPC allowed with Reader off the field (4.9), but first with him on the field (3.6).

However, the less prominent new additions of cornerbacks Carlton Davis (Tampa Bay) and Amik Robertson (Las Vegas) should offer Branch additional support in the secondary – in addition to the rookie draft picks.

The signing of edge rusher Marcus Davenport (Minnesota) could also help Aidan Hutchison in the pass rush area.

Hutchinson was incredible last season – he led the NFL in pressures (78) – but he was often a one-man destruction force.

More importantly, the Lions led the NFL in pressure rate last season (28%), but were unable to convert that into sacks, ranking 23rd in that department (41).

They were one of the NFL’s most aggressive defenses, boasting the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL (9%), but ranked last in yards per blitz attempt allowed (8.9).

Surprisingly, the Lions had excellent pass defense when they weren’t blitzing, ranking ninth in EPA per pass (-0.05) and seventh in completion percentage allowed (63%).

It worked when they allowed Hutchison to destroy the attack lines and everyone dropped back in cover, but when they sent guys from the second and third levels, they were vulnerable to explosive attacks.

With some additional players in the secondary to complement Branch and an additional pass rusher to complement Hutchison, I could see Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn redesigning their defensive system to be less aggressive and less reliant on the blitz.

Conversely, I’m not sure where the improvements in LA’s defense are coming from.

The Rams ranked 21st in the NFL in early-down EPA per play allowed defense last season. Their 7-1 run late in the season was largely due to improved rush defense on third-and-short.

They bring in a new defensive coordinator (Chris Shula) who will likely rely heavily on four rookies (Jared Verse, Brennan Jackson, Braden Fiske, Tyler Davis) to rotate the defensive line.

While a young defense can improve quickly with a new defensive coordinator, I don’t think that will happen in Week 1 against a top-5 offense with a top-2 offensive line.

I can’t predict that Ben Johnson’s elite, motion-based, balanced play-running offense (top 7 in EPA per rush and pass last year) will slow down, especially with the return of four starters on the offensive line, led by star right tackle Penei Sewell. Detroit could crush LA in the trenches.

Conversely, I am quite happy with Detroit’s defense against LA’s attack.

After the late-season surge, the Rams’ offense is probably a bit overrated—attacks that improve dramatically in the second half of the season often experience a decline the following year.

Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson could finish cornerback Arnold in the 11th and 12th, but they shouldn’t be able to run the ball against Detroit’s dominant rush defense, which has gotten even better with the addition of Reader.

This could make the Rams one-dimensional and cause the Lions to drop more players back into coverage, simultaneously avoiding dangerous blitz packages and killing the play-action game – Stafford is a slam dunk on play-action and the Lions have allowed the second-most play-action passing yards in 2023.

This concern is further compounded by the Rams moving some players around on their offensive line.

They lost center Coleman Shelton in free agency and replaced him with left guard Jonah Jackson (from Detroit), so they are moving former left guard Steve Avila to the center position.

Betting on the NFL?

I am relatively happy with the Lions, except for one concern: injuries.

Sewell, Reader, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs are listed as “questionable” in Detroit’s latest injury report (ESPN). If the roster is severely shorthanded, I’ll probably buy out my Lions positions.

Tip: Rams vs. Lions

Lions -3.5 (-105, Caesars) ** Pending injury report