Best bets and pitching props

Angles, edges, scams, call them whatever you want. If you’re betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful as you delve into the matchups.

In this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to consider for each day and how you can apply this information to the many pitcher prop markets available to you. You may not come to the same conclusion about the bet as I did, but the data is the most important part.

Let’s grab some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, October 3rd.

Josh’s Best Pitcher Starting Edges: October 3rd

• Quintana u4.5 hits allowed (-105)
• Myers u4.5 hits allowed (-145)

Today’s best SP angles

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Angle: Both teams will empty the tanks in the bullpen.

There is no reason for either team to let their starters walk long unless they spend, which still favors hits under 4.5 for both pitchers.

Tobias Myers initially didn’t have a long leash as the rookie pitched career highs in innings. By the end of the season, he had exactly twelve outs in three consecutive games, including a 56-pitch one-hit out against the New York Mets in his final start.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen will be in action today and Myers’ sub-4.5 hits allowed is a buy up to -155 for me. He predicts that THE BAT will allow hits under 4.00 on 72 fields.

On the other hand, Jose Quintana under 4.5 hits allowed at -105 is a more reasonable buy. He’s projecting 4.3 hits allowed on 79 pitches, but that could be his ceiling. He’s allowed just 0.8 hits per inning in his last 10 starts and Milwaukee is one of the tougher lineups in the playoffs.

Luis Severino managed more than 100 pitches in the series opener, but that was an addition to the bullpen’s workload in Monday’s doubleheader. The pen resets and the Mets may only need Quintana for 12 outs as they need to get guys like Edwin Diaz to the ball since the closer hasn’t even appeared in the series yet.

Should one of the starters fail early, both managers have a Plan B ready, as neither club wants the same fate as the Braves yesterday when they left Max Fried to get shelled in the second inning.

It is a low volume game with no outs markets to exploit.

The Change: Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-117 at Caesars)

The move: Tobias Myers Less than 4.5 hits allowed (-150 at DraftKings)

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