Best-worst case scenarios for 2024-25

No one can predict the ups and downs, highs and lows of a college basketball season, but I’ll try.

Butler has experienced a little bit of everything in coach Thad Matta’s first two seasons at the helm. Matta’s first team in the 2022–23 season featured a mix of holdovers and transfers. Of the returning players, only Jayden Taylor had a real breakthrough. All but one of the holdovers (Connor Turnbull) transferred at the end of the season, and none of Eric Hunter Jr., Manny Bates or Jalen Thomas developed into All-Big East-caliber performers. The team was ravaged by injuries and was never able to bounce back, stumbling to a record of 14-18.

Last season, Matta rebuilt the entire roster, targeting transfers who still had several years of eligibility left and supplementing them with quality newcomers. The new additions paid off as Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks II established themselves as pillars of the program. Butler finished 18-15, missing the NCAA Tournament, but showed enough improvement to be optimistic about the 2024-25 season.

Last season, Butler was unusually healthy — its starters played 32 of 33 games — and its top four scorers moved in the offseason.

The 2022-23 season was something of a worst-case scenario, while 2023-24 was somewhere in the middle. Here are some best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024-25 season.

Best case scenarios

Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks II received first-team All-Big East honors

Telfort comes to Butler with more than 90 career starts and experience in FIBA basketball with Team Canada. He is a battle-tested veteran and his production remained consistent even in the transfer from the Northeast to the Big East. A move to the next level for Telfort would mean improving his playing skills and increasing his assist numbers. With Jalen Thomas having exhausted his eligibility, Telfort also has room on the boards to increase his production. More assists, rebounds, points, maybe even a triple-double or two will help Telfort earn All-Big East First Team honors.

Brooks’ jump to the Big East first team will require improved defense and a significant jump in scoring. The former Michigan State Spartan established himself as Butler’s leading scorer, and in a best-case scenario, Brooks would become the Big East’s leading scorer. Last season, Providence guard Devin Carter, the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, led the Big East with 19.7 points per game. Brooks averaged 14.7 points per game last season and topped 19 points per game seven times. Brooks’ three-level scoring ability gives him all the tools to lead the Big East in scoring.

Jamie Kaiser Jr. is shooting 40% from the 3-point line

If Kaiser Jr. achieves this best-case scenario, he may no longer be with the Bulldogs this season – he will be a pro. Kaiser is a former four-star prospect and top-75 recruit according to 247Sports. Kaiser was ranked ahead of Reed Sheppard (No. 79), the third-largest 2024 NBA draft pick, and Bub Carrington (No. 91), the No. 14 overall pick coming from prep team IMG Academy in 2023.

The 6-6 guard has the size and shooting ability that next-level performance evaluators dream of, but last season at Maryland he struggled to get his touch shooting to just 26% from 3. A change of scenery and Alex Barlow’s offense could help Kaiser find his range. Shooting guard DJ Davis had the ultimate green light, shooting from well behind the 3-point line, in transition, off screens and in spot-ups. Kaiser will get open looks from deep in the Dawgs offense at the two-guard position, helping him gain confidence and become an elite 3-point shooter.

Andre Screen is averaging a double-double

With Jalen Thomas graduating, the screen should take on a larger role. The former Bucknell center is deadly close to the basket. He has the gentle touch and nimble footwork to become a double-digit scorer with more minutes.

His biggest area of improvement has to be defensively. In this best-case scenario, Screen develops into a strong defensive player who anchors the interior defense and is averaging a double-double this season.

Kolby King solidifies Butler’s position as point guard

King comes to Butler from Tulane and has a reputation as a scorer. At 6-2 and with great athleticism, it would be a waste of his talent to ask him not to be a scorer.

It’s a great luxury to have capable scorers at every position, but someone has to initiate the offense and set the tone in half-court situations. Posh Alexander gave the Bulldogs real ability as a floor general last season. Alexander transferred to Dayton, leaving a significant void at point guard.

I think King will solidify Butler’s position as point guard. I expect Telfort to have the ball in his hands often and act as a de facto point guard in many situations. When Telfort is off the ball, King will take over point guard duties and develop into a reliable playmaker for the Dawgs.

Worst case scenarios

The point guard position remains changing

If King can’t control the point guard position, Landon Moore and Finley Bizjack are also candidates for the lead guard role. If you have three point guards, you may not have one. In this worst-case scenario, the Dawgs spend the season rotating players at point guard and can’t find a fit at the position.

Butler cannot establish a two-way interior presence

Senior center Andre Screen and sophomore center Boden Kapke are talented offensive players. Kapke is a threat from the inside out. Screen is an old-school center who is almost impossible to stop when positioned deep. With Butler’s two true centers, it’s not a question of shooting the ball, but the ability to hold up on defense.

The sieve must better protect the rim without contaminating it. Kapke needs to get stronger to hold its own in the interior. Both players have addressed those weaknesses this offseason, but if their deficiencies persist, opposing teams could exploit the Dawgs inside. Sophomore forward Augusto Cassia has demonstrated his outstanding defensive skills. He’s athletic enough to protect the perimeter and long enough to protect the rim. Offensively, he is more of a deployment player who can score on putbacks and lobs. In this worst-case scenario, none of Butler’s interior players develop into two-way players.