Big Bills game against Dolphins tonight, plus best/worst QB ratings

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Week 2 begins tonight, which means it’s time to check out Jake Ciely’s Week 2 fantasy football rankings. Already? Where does the time go??

Below:

• Quick look at Bills-Dolphins
• Packers QB for Week 2?
• QB deals (and rankings)
• Worried about Burrow?

AFC East Battle: What’s there to see tonight?

The Dolphins are 2 1/2 favorites (according to BetMGM) against the Bills tonight. Surprising, because Buffalo is 11-2 against Miami since signing Josh Allen in 2018.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is 1-6 against Buffalo and has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6) in seven career starts against Sean McDermott’s defense.

The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. In addition to the quarterbacks, here’s what I’ll be watching for:

• Buffalo’s running game. Josh Allen is (rightfully) a candidate for MVP, but in Week 1 the Bills ran the ball on early downs more times (according to the Cook Index) than they have in their last 82 games with Allen. Buffalo is now 8-2 since Joe Brady was promoted to OC (with strict instructions to establish the run). Expect the Bills to control the clock in this game, with plenty of James Cook.

• Miami’s explosiveness. Maintaining control is key for Buffalo, especially in the screen game. As Joe Buscaglia notes, the Bills had trouble stopping screen passes in Week 1. That’s a strength of the Dolphins offense with the lightning-fast Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane when he’s called into action. Raheem Mostert is out.

What Dianna hears: Love possible, but Willis will probably start

The Packers are keeping the door open for QB Jordan Love’s return on Sunday, but all indications are that QB Malik Willis will start against Indianapolis while Love recovers from his MCL sprain.

Green Bay has used draft capital on quarterbacks in three consecutive drafts, selecting Sean Clifford (fifth round in 2023) and Michael Pratt (seventh round in 2024, now on the Bucs’ practice squad after Green Bay released him) and acquiring Willis from the Tennessee Titans (for a seventh-round pick in 2025).

Willis’ first start for the Packers would come against an impressive defense. Indianapolis has experience and will be looking to rebound from last week’s loss to Houston.

Willis has made just three NFL starts, all as a rookie in 2022. The athleteMatt Schneidman investigated how Willis prepares. Meanwhile, the Colts expect Packers coach Matt LaFleur to rely heavily on running back Josh Jacobs on Sunday (fantasy alert!)

Back to you, Jacob.

QB Watch: Contracts vs. Rankings

This morning, Mike Sando posted a comparison of his QB tiers to historical contract values. A fascinating look at why today’s trend of giving top contracts to mid-tier quarterbacks wasn’t always so common.

It’s a deep dive into the best/worst values ​​of the last 10 years, comparing average annual wages to tier rankings. Four notable players:

Best values:

• 2024 Brock Purdy. QB Rank: 12. Contract Rank: 80. Purdy has a seventh-round rookie contract through next season—worth less than $1 million per year. It represents the most value since 2014 and possibly always.
• 2017 Dak Prescott. QB rank: 14. Contract rank: 74. Just behind Purdy, Prescott, who now makes $60 million a year, earned just $635,000 in the second year of his fourth-round rookie contract.

Not so good:

• 2024 Trevor Lawrence. QB Tiers Rank: 16. APY Rank: 2. That’s the largest deficit for a Tier 1-3 QB in the 10-year history of the QB Tiers, so Lawrence can still justify the deal.
• Deshaun WatsonBased on his performance on the field alone, I expected him to be one of the worst players, but according to NFL decision makers, he had only fallen to No. 3 in the rankings before Week 1.

Be sure to check out the full article to learn more.

Questions The athlete: Joe Burrow’s level of concern

In case you missed it, Bengals reporter Paul Dehner Jr. took a look at why Joe Burrow struggled in Week 1. Nearly 50 percent of you felt Burrow’s hesitation cost you a survival pool. In fantasy football, it impacted many more players. Here’s Paul:

💬 “Burrow completed 21 of 29 passes, but only six of those passes were thrown for more than 7 yards… (He) constantly seemed to get out quickly and throw in front of the post instead of waiting for a better option… Only one of the six throws made it past the post…

(Notably) “Burrow specifically stated after the game that his wrist feels good and he’s comfortable in the pocket. What he hasn’t said since the injury is that his wrist feels 100 percent comfortable.”

When he threw the ball, Burrow seemed fine. But this is concerning, especially after he fidgeted with his wrist throughout the game.👇

All about the NFL

With Deshaun Watson Mark Puleo, who is facing another lawsuit, gives an overview of Watson’s legal troubles since his first accusation of sexual misconduct in 2021. Despite the latest accusation, Watson will play on Sunday.

Zak Keefer’s article about CJ StroudThe tour of in Houston is worth your time.

Former Giants offensive lineman Jason Whittle doesn’t want to be known as Patrick Swayze’s son, despite what the Internet insists. Tim Graham’s story shows why Whittle should be known for his actions after 9/11 instead.

Is bench press Daniel Jones an overreaction? Giants reporter Dan Duggan says yes, as there is “no guarantee that backup Drew Lock will be a significant addition.” HC Brian Daboll agrees, and we’ll see Jones in Week 2 against the struggling Commanders.

Tyreek Hill called for the firing of a Miami-Dade police officer after the wide receiver was arrested during a traffic stop outside Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

Most clicked yesterday: The best and worst coaching decisions of NFL Week 1.

We’ll be back tomorrow. Until then, forward this newsletter to someone who would punt on 4th and 1. Are you that friend? Sign up here.

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The bounce 🏀 | The winding ⚾ | Full time ⚽ | Prime tires 🏁 | Until Saturday 🏈

(Photo: Dylan Buell/Getty Images)