Bills vs. Dolphins Week 9 game preview

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins face off again in Week 9, looking to reignite their rivalry after Buffalo’s dominant 31-10 win in Week 2. The Dolphins are coming off a narrow loss to the Arizona Cardinals that dropped them to 2-5 and third place in the AFC East. The Bills are comfortably ahead in the AFC East with a record of 6-2, meaning this game is vital for the Dolphins.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was injured in the third quarter of Week 2, returned to the starting lineup last week. Today’s game should be an exciting divisional showdown, even if the two teams appear to be going in very different directions.

To prepare ourselves for this afternoon’s game at Highmark Stadium, here’s a breakdown of the key matchups to watch for both sides. All advanced stats below are from Next Gen Stats, courtesy of pro.nfl.com.

Buffalo Bills pass offense vs. Miami Dolphins pass defense

The Bills’ passing game was consistently powerful against the Dolphins, with quarterback Josh Allen posting a 110.0 passer rating in 13 regular-season games against Miami. He has thrown 34 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in those 13 games. Allen was also dominant on the ground, totaling 640 yards and five touchdowns in his regular season career against the Dolphins. Miami’s pass defense ranks fifth in the NFL, allowing just 176.3 passing yards per game – although that may be influenced by teams focusing on the run when they have the lead.

The Dolphins’ pass rush has yielded just nine sacks this season, but they rank second in the NFL in pressure rate at 40.5% – and they blitz frequently (30% of passing plays). However, opposing quarterbacks have plenty of time to throw, as Miami allows an average of 2.93 seconds in the pocket, which is the third-highest in the league. Injuries in the secondary, with starters Kohou (nickel cornerback) and Javon Holland (safety) listed as out and questionable, respectively, create even more vulnerabilities for Miami to hide.

The key to Bills success: Drive Josh Allen to victory.

Buffalo Bills run offense vs. Miami Dolphins run defense

Buffalo’s rushing attack faces a Dolphins run defense that allows an NFL-worst 3.92 yards after contact. Funnily enough, Miami is actually the best in the NFL at allowing just 0.51 yards before contact, which could be an indication that the Dolphins’ defense is stacked with poor tacklers. The Bills average 122.3 rushing yards per game, which is above the NFL average, and they rank in the NFL’s impressive top five in EPA per rush at +.08. Buffalo manages to pass the ball in the top 10 44.2% of the time.

Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam is out, which shouldn’t impact the team’s running game too much since they don’t use him often. When Buffalo needs an additional blocker, they usually bring in swing offensive lineman Alec Anderson.

The key to Bills success: Running backs James Cook and Ray Davis should have success with yards after contact and break tackles against a suspect Dolphins run defense. Buffalo should run the ball in advantageous situations, but also try not to force it.

Miami Dolphins pass offense vs. Buffalo Bills pass defense

Tua Tagovailoa returns to the Bills after spending time on injured reserve and missing five weeks after suffering a concussion in the Week 2 game against Buffalo. As mentioned above, Tagovailoa returned in Week 8 and led the Dolphins to their best offensive performance of the season, scoring 27 points.

Even though Tagovailoa has only appeared in three games this season, he still has some numbers that we can find useful. When Tagovailoa has played, his wide receivers average 4.1 yards per pass attempt. But he had a hard time capitalizing on those opportunities, and his completion percentage was above expectations at -2.1% – ninth-worst in the NFL. Tagovailoa has thrown for 717 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions this season.

Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 13th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (208.1) and is strong at pressuring the quarterback, averaging 2.62 seconds to pressure opposing QBs to set. However, they allow the fifth-highest distance percentage in coverage (3.9 yards). Miami’s wide receivers should find room to play, but having Christian Benford in the lineup will be crucial to Buffalo’s pass defense.

The key to Bills success: As always, take the first read away from Tagovailoa and put pressure on him. As a Dolphin, Tyreek Hill has never topped 100 yards against Buffalo – don’t let that happen in Week 8.

Miami Dolphins run offense vs. Buffalo Bills run defense

Despite ranking ninth in rushing yards per game (131.7), Miami’s ground game was inefficient. They rank 31st in EPA per rush at -0.23 and also lead the league in getting stuffed at the finish line, with 23% of runs failing to gain yards. Miami tends to run outdoors, with 62% of runs directed outdoors. You also see the sixth smallest stacked boxes, meaning teams are more concerned about defending their wide receivers. With an average of 2.75 yards, the Dolphins rank low in yards after contact, indicating a lack of explosive rushing ability. This is surprising since their team is full of explosive running backs with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.

The Bills’ run defense is middle of the pack, allowing 120.3 yards per game. However, this number has steadily improved over the course of the season. Buffalo manages to stuff the run at an above-average rate of 22.5%. The Bills struggle slightly before contact, allowing an average of 1.89 yards, but excel in tackling and only give up 2.93 yards after contact – one of the best marks in the NFL. Buffalo has a lot of experience defending the outside run (which the Dolphins like to do), as the outside run accounts for 58% of opponents’ runs.

The key to Bills success: De’Von Achane had success against the Bills in Week 2, but it didn’t mean much in the end. He finished with 96 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry, but also had seven receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo needs to get an early lead and make the Dolphins one-dimensional. Miami has proven to be dangerous when they can execute on successful running plays.