Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: What the numbers tell us

Canelo Alvarez will headline Las Vegas for the 18th time when he puts his WBC, WBO and WBA super middleweight world titles on the line against Edgar Berlanga on Saturday night. The fight card at T-Mobile Arena also includes Erislandy Lara defending his WBA middleweight title against Danny Garcia and a super middleweight bout between Caleb Plant and Trevor McCumby for the vacant WBA interim title.

Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) has held titles in four divisions, including the lineal middleweight and super middleweight championships. Alvarez became the undisputed super middleweight champion by defeating Plant by 11th-round TKO in November 2021. He successfully defended his title four times before the IBF stripped him of the belt in July when Alvarez decided to face Berlanga instead of IBF mandatory challenger William Scull.

“I just want to show everyone that I’m still the best,” Alvarez said during Wednesday’s press conference in Las Vegas. “I still love this sport. If I stop loving it, you’ll know. I love my routine and I love going to the gym every day.”

Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) has never fought for a world title. Despite starting his career 16-0 and earning all of his victories in the first round, Berlanga has only managed a single stoppage in his last six victories.

Berlanga, a clear underdog (+900 according to ESPN BET), knows he has to do something special to beat Alvarez, one of the best fighters in the world.

“This is the chance of a lifetime,” said Berlanga. “This weekend will be an exciting duel. … I will convince everyone. We have Puerto Rico against Mexico and we will start on Saturday night.”

Let’s take a look at the title fight by the numbers, with data from ESPN Stats & Information and CompuBox.

-2000: Odds for Alvarez to win the fight according to ESPN BET.

1,582: The total number of seconds Berlanga fought in his first 16 fights as a professional, all of which ended in the first round, averaged 98.9 seconds per fight. The combined record of all 16 opponents at the time of their fights was 175 wins, 67 losses and 15 draws.

4: Successful title defenses by Alvarez as undisputed super middleweight champion. He is the only male boxer to defend an undisputed title four times in the four-belt era (since 2007).

21: Alvarez’s wins in world championship fights; at 21-2-1, he is the fourth Mexican-born fighter with 20 or more wins in world championship fights. A win on Saturday would break a tie with Marco Antonio Barrera for the third-most in world championship fights by a Mexican fighter (Julio Cesar Chavez, 31; Ricardo “Finito” Lopez, 25).

11: Undisputed men’s champions in the modern four-belt era. Besides Alvarez, these are: Bernard Hopkins, Jermain Taylor, Terence Crawford, Oleksandr Usyk, Teofimo Lopez, Josh Taylor, George Kambosos Jr., Devin Haney, Jermell Charlo and Naoya Inoue.

14.7: Punches landed by Alvarez per round of 41 thrown (35.9%, 5th in accuracy among champions and title contenders).

4.2: Of the jabs landed by Alvarez per round, 18.3 (23%) were.

10.5: Alvarez landed 22.7 power punches per round (46.3%), ranking 6th among champions and title contenders.

6.6: 30.1% of opponents landed powerful punches on Alvarez per round.

12.4: Punches landed by Berlanga per round out of 37.6 punches thrown (33%).

7.6: Berlanga landed 17.8 power punches per round (42.7%).

5.8: Berlanga landed powerful punches from his opponents per round (29.9%).

• Although Berlanga was born in Brooklyn, New York, his Puerto Rican heritage puts this fight in line with other notable title fights between Mexico and Puerto Rico.

• Compared to Alvarez’s championship experience, Berlanga will be fighting for a world title for the first time in his career. It will be a big step up for Berlanga, as he enters the fight as the No. 5 ranked super middleweight, according to ESPN.

• Canelo will be making his eighth defense of at least a super middleweight title. He is currently a -2000 favorite (according to ESPN BET), which would be his second-lowest odds to win a super middleweight title fight.

In their own words – from the final press conference on Wednesday in Las Vegas

Berlanga on what the fight against Alvarez means to him: “It means everything to me to be in this position. I shouldn’t be here. Even before I turned pro, people doubted me. But I knew I was bound to end up in this position.”

“I could be the face of Puerto Rican boxing after Saturday night. I’ve wanted to do that for many years and now it’s my turn to do it.”

Berlanga on his approach before the fight: “I’m a knockout artist. Every fighter wants the knockout. We know he’s a legend and we can’t just go for the goal. We have to do it right. Knockout in the sixth round, that’s our goal. But we’re ready for all 12 rounds if we have to.”

Alvarez on his intention to aim for the KO: “It’s easy to say you’re going to knock me out, but it’s much harder to actually do it. Saturday night is going to be very difficult for him for sure. I’ve been preparing for the knockout. I love the feeling of a knockout and I’m going to do my best to do it.”

“I always give 100 percent in my fights and in training, no matter who I fight. The attitude is the same in every fight. This is no exception. I had a great training camp and I’m ready.”

Alvarez on the fighting on the weekend of Mexican Independence Day: “It is an honor to fight on this day. Mexican Independence Day is very important to us. It is very special and I am very proud to fight for the Mexican people.”

“The fans mean everything to me and I appreciate them. They support me no matter what and I am grateful to everyone who has supported me throughout my career.”