Category 4 storm is heading for Florida’s Gulf Coast, massive evacuations are ordered

Hurricane Milton was downgraded from a dangerous Category 5 storm overnight but remained a very strong Category 4 hurricane as it targeted Florida’s Gulf Coast, which is still reeling from Helene’s record-breaking landfall just over a week ago.

“Although fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane as it makes landfall in Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said in its update at 8 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

A state of emergency is in effect in 51 counties in the state of Florida and millions face the prospect of evacuation as Milton gains momentum on its way to the Tampa Bay area, where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday evening.

At a news conference Tuesday morning, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stressed that while wind speeds have slowed, Milton is “still a major hurricane” and has the potential to strengthen again before making landfall.

“Even if it weakens, you’re still dealing with a major hurricane,” DeSantis said. “It’s going to have a really, really significant impact.”

If it stays on its current path, Milton could be the worst storm to hit the Tampa area in over 100 years.

The hurricane is one of only 40 recorded hurricanes to have escalated to Category 5 in the Atlantic and one of seven hurricanes to have gone from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Federal Emergency Management Agency officials described Milton as the third fastest-growing storm ever in the Atlantic, behind Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007), during a call with reporters Monday afternoon.

Where is Hurricane Milton and what path is it taking?

As of Tuesday, 8 a.m. ET:

• Milton was located about 100 miles northeast of Progreso, Mexico.

• It was about 545 miles southwest of Tampa.

• The storm had maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour.

• The storm was moving east-northeast at a speed of 12 miles per hour.

The NHC warned Tuesday morning that “a large area of ​​destructive storm surge” would occur along parts of Florida’s west coast.

“This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in these areas should follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate immediately if ordered to do so,” the hurricane center said.

Parts of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys are expected to see 5 to 10 inches of rainfall through Wednesday night, with localized rainfall totals of up to 15 inches. Such rains pose “the risk of significant flash flooding, urban and regional flooding, as well as the possibility of moderate to severe river flooding,” forecasters said.

Meanwhile, parts of the northern Yucatán Peninsula can expect 5 to 10 centimeters of rainfall.

Warnings and Watches

Starting Tuesday, 8 a.m. ET, a Hurricane warning applies to:

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico

• Florida’s West Coast, from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

• Florida’s east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County line north to Ponte Vedra Beach

A “hurricane warning” means that hurricane conditions are expected in the area. Precautions and preparations for people and property should be completed.

A Hurricane watch applies to:

• Florida’s West Coast, from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

• Dry Tortugas

• Lake Okeechobee

A “hurricane warning” means that hurricane conditions are possible in the areas and is typically issued 48 hours before the expected hurricane.

A Tropical Storm Warning applies to:

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun

• All Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

• Lake Okeechobee

• Florida’s West Coast, from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida’s west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Florida’s east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo

• Florida’s east coast north from Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River

A “Tropical Storm Warning” means that areas are expected to experience tropical storm conditions within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical storm watch applies to:

A “tropical storm watch” means tropical storm conditions are possible in areas over the next 48 hours.

A Storm surge warning applies to:

• The west coast of Florida from Flamingo to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

• The east coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County line north to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River

A “storm surge warning” means there is a risk of life-threatening flooding over the next 36 hours.

A Storm surge watch applies to:

• Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to the Volusia/Brevard County line

• Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Edisto Beach

A “storm surge watch” means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding.

Evacuations

As of Tuesday morning, the Florida Division of Emergency Management had ordered mandatory evacuations for people living in evacuation zones in 11 Florida counties.

DeSantis urged residents to follow evacuation orders but emphasized that they do not need to travel far to be safe.

“You don’t have to evacuate hundreds of miles,” DeSantis said at a news conference Monday. “If you are in areas that are prone to storm surge, go to areas that are not prone to it. There are places you can go in every county. Maybe it’s a friend’s house, maybe it’s a hotel, maybe it’s a place to stay.”

Mandatory evacuations apply to:

• Charlotte County

• Citrus County

• Collier County

• Hernando County

• Hillsborough County

• Lee County

• Levy County

• Manatee County

• Pasco County

• Pinellas County

• Volusia County

Voluntary evacuations apply to:

• Glades County

• Miami-Dade County

• Okeechobee County

To find out if you live in an evacuation zone, click here.

Milton arrives days after Helene

Hurricane Milton comes just over a week after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a monstrous Category 4 storm, causing at least 20 deaths in Florida alone.

During a press briefing Monday afternoon, FEMA noted that the organization will not yet redirect personnel already working in areas affected by Hurricane Helene to Milton’s route.

After making landfall with winds of 140 miles per hour, Helene moved inland across the southeast, leaving more than 200 dead and widespread destruction. After the storm, Florida’s infrastructure and emergency services were overwhelmed.

Read more from Yahoo News: Helene shows that in the age of climate change, hurricanes don’t just destroy coastlines

Active hurricane season

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but the peak of increased activity is usually from August to October. According to NOAA, in a “typical” Atlantic hurricane season there will typically be about 14 named storms, “of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.”

As of early October, eight hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic – Milton is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. As CNN notes, hurricane season is moving faster than expected. Normally, the 13th storm of the season would not hit until October 25th at the earliest.

Last week, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that FEMA does not have the resources to get through the season. President Biden said last week that Congress may need to pass additional spending legislation in the next few months to fund states’ recovery efforts.