Dolphins vs. Bills is a rivalry in the AFC East with implications for the NFL playoffs

For the Miami Dolphins, the process of ending the longest active streak without a postseason win in the NFL begins Thursday night.

“They have to show they can beat the Buffalo Bills,” former NFL offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth said in a conference call with reporters before the two teams begin “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

This will give the Dolphins the upper hand in the race for the division title. A win in the AFC East, something the Dolphins have not done since 2008, would guarantee them a home playoff game. A home win in the wild-card round could help Miami earn its first playoff win since the 2000 wild-card round.

This AFC East rivalry has been one-sided for the past five years. Buffalo is 11-1 in its last 12 games against Miami, including two late-season games in back-to-back seasons. The Bills escaped the seventh-seeded Dolphins in the wild-card round two seasons ago, who had to use backup quarterback Skyler Thompson in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa. In Week 18 of last year, the Bills snatched the AFC East crown, forcing the Dolphins to a road game and arctic temperatures against the Kansas City Chiefs, who pulled off a 26-7 victory.

“This team is built for speed. This team is crafty. This team is an explosive team,” said former NFL quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who spent two seasons with the Dolphins. “But they have to have a home playoff game, and I think that’s their main concern this year. I think that really hurt them last year, and it was one of the coldest playoff games last year in Kansas City. It’s really important for them to get over the hump of hosting a playoff game.”

It’s no secret that Mike McDaniel’s offense thrives on explosive plays. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are ideal players, even if the former is out on Thursday and the latter’s participation is questionable. Tagovailoa has established himself as a reliable thrower of the football. But he struggles in cold weather games: Tagovailoa is 1-7 with nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions in games where the temperature was below 10 degrees at kickoff.

“When you look at this offense, I think they need the opportunity to play a lot of those games in Miami in the playoffs, then you’ll disprove that narrative a little bit,” Whitworth said.

Whitworth said there is a certain style in cold weather playoff games: defense and an effective running game. The explosive game identity works in the first half of the season. But in December and beyond, “you have to play a kind of physical, defensive football game.”

“And you have little pieces that have explosives built in,” he said. “If you look at the teams that do these runs, you can see that there are little pieces of them built in.”

Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez doesn’t think the Dolphins can leave Hard Rock Stadium anytime soon.

“For me, there is no way the Miami Dolphins can play away and make it to the Super Bowl,” said the TNF analyst.

Games between the Bills and Dolphins have been important over the past few seasons for both teams as they battle for the division title and more. The problem for the Dolphins is that they end up on the losing side.

“They’re the better team this week,” said former NFL cornerback and TNF analyst Richard Sherman. “Technically, on paper, they’re the more talented team. They need to win this game.”

Both teams are coming off comeback wins in which they each trailed by 14 points. The Bills defeated the Arizona Cardinals 34-28, while the Dolphins kicked a last-second field goal to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17.

The weather forecast for Miami included a heat warning for Thursday, and the temperature at kickoff will be around 80 degrees. That’s Dolphin weather.

Yet the team will face questions – and possibly be stuck in a winless streak in the postseason – until it can win like a cold-weather team, even if the Dolphins take the first step by winning the division and hosting a playoff game.

“That’s the reality,” Whitworth said. “They have to show they can play that style of football … that will give them the confidence to go at the end of the season.”

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