Donald Trump’s Chances of Losing Florida – Latest Polls

Five days before Election Day, Florida’s latest election is unlikely to shake Donald Trump’s confidence in winning the Sunshine State, which hasn’t voted for Democrats since 2012.

While the Republican candidate expected a backlash after a speaker at one of his rallies in New York infamously compared Puerto Rico to a “floating island of trash,” Trump appears to have maintained his slim lead over Kamala Harris in Florida, according to a Cygnal In a He was five points ahead of Harris in the poll.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28 and shared with Florida Politics on Wednesday, looked at last Sunday, when comedian and podcaster Tony Hinchcliffe made the racist joke to a stunned audience. The comment, which sparked outrage across the country, may have been particularly consequential in Florida, which has the second-highest concentration of Puerto Rican voters (5.4 percent) after Connecticut (7.9 percent), according to U.S. data compiled by Axios Census Bureau from 2023.

In Florida, Republican Senator Rick Scott and Representatives Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez quickly condemned the comment by comedian and podcaster Hinchcliffe, from whom Trump’s campaign has also distanced itself.

But according to the Cygnal poll, Trump has been relatively spared from the unfortunate event as he maintains his lead among Puerto Ricans and other Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State.

The poll gives him the support of 50 percent of Hispanic voters, an improvement from his 46 percent in 2020. But while he leads by 10 points among Hispanics, his lead among Puerto Ricans shrinks to just two points.

Overall, Trump leads Harris in the poll by 48 percent to 43 percent. About 5 percent of likely voters are still undecided. The former president also has an advantage among swing voters, with an estimated 35 percent supporting him and 32 percent supporting Harris.

As much as the polls are still in Trump’s favor, his lead in the Cygnal poll appears to have shrunk compared to a few weeks and months ago, and the gap between the two candidates is narrowing. However, other recently released polls paint a much rosier picture for the former president.

Trump leads Harris in Florida 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters (+9), according to the latest national poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA released Tuesday. .

A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by ActiVote between Oct. 11 and Oct. 27 and released Monday shows Trump leading Harris by 11.6 percent in the Sunshine State.

How did Donald Trump do in Florida in 2016 and 2020?

Donald Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, the Republican nominee defeated Democratic rival Hillary Clinton with 48.6 percent of the vote to 47.4 percent. Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, St. Lucie, Osceola, Orange, Alachua, Leon and Gadsden counties chose Clinton.

Four years ago, Trump won Florida by a much larger margin, with 51.2 percent of the vote compared to 47.9 percent for Joe Biden. Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Alachua, Duval, Leon and Gadsen counties voted for Biden.