European gas price and CO2 price are moving closer together again – Commerzbank

Yesterday, the European gas price reached its highest level since mid-December at almost 43 euros per MWh. The price is still being driven by concerns about supply bottlenecks, says commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank.

Prices likely to fall again if gas flows through Ukraine

“If gas continues to flow through Ukraine – which people familiar with the matter believe will happen, according to Bloomberg – prices are likely to fall slightly again. However, Norway is scheduled to undergo further maintenance later this month.”

“However, natural gas storage facilities in the EU are now over 87 percent full and the required 90 percent mark by November 1 is already within reach. In addition, Asia’s demand for LNG is likely to have weakened somewhat this month and LNG deliveries to Europe have become more attractive again.”

“An easing of the European gas market should also lead to prices in the EU emissions trading system falling again somewhat, after they briefly rose to just under 74 euros per tonne yesterday as a result of the gas price increase. However, given the stabilisation of production in the energy-intensive sectors, we believe the downward potential is limited.”