Expert analysis of the second week

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2024 season, the Jaguars’ “experts” – Tony Boselli, Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, JP Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the Jaguars’ game the following day.

This week: The Cleveland Browns at EverBank Stadium.

Brian Sexton, senior correspondent for jaguars.com

• The Jaguars win if: Their defensive line takes over. The Browns are physically strong and excellent in the middle of their offensive line, but both starting tackles are injured. The Dallas Cowboys held Browns running back Jerome Ford to just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt in Week 1, and Dallas sacked Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson six times. That’s the game plan for success on Sunday — set the tempo against an offense without running back Nick Chubb and tight end David Njoku, and make life difficult for a quarterback who looks nothing like the guy who beat the Jaguars 6-0 when he started against them in Houston.
• The Browns win if: Defensive end Myles Garrett has everything under control with Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison. Neither of the Jaguars’ two offensive tackles got off to a stellar start in Miami, and this week won’t be any easier against a guy known as the “Grim Reaper.” He’s a mix of size, strength, speed and length — and his 88.5 sacks over the past seven seasons are second-best in the NFL behind TJ Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But he’s more than a pass rusher. Garrett is a game-wrecker, and if the Jaguars have trouble containing him, it’s easy to imagine Z’Darius Smith and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah taking advantage of the situation and causing even more problems for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
• Sexton sees it this way: This is a really important game for the home team, and the Jaguars aren’t going to miss their chance. They were just one play away from last week, which was completely different. Had Dolphins safety Jevon Holland not made a great play to knock the ball away from running back Travis Etienne Jr., we’d be focusing more on how the defense shined against the Dolphins — and the long drives and big plays the offense produced. I think the Jaguars win, and hopefully we’ll see a team that starts winning the close games instead of losing them.

John Oehser, senior editor at jaguars.com

• The Jaguars will win if they: Pressure Watson and use third downs effectively. A pressure defense should force Watson into sacks and mistakes, and using third downs will give the otherwise strong offense more time to make big plays and score. Also: The Jaguars need to make key plays late. It’s a familiar refrain, but they won’t win consistently until they start doing that.
• The Browns win if: Win on defense. With Garrett, the Browns can dominate any game on defense. If the Jaguars can’t stop Garrett from ruining the game in crucial moments, they could quickly find themselves down 2-0.
• Oehser sees it this way: This is a game the Jaguars can and should win. The defensive front should be a strength of the team and this offense — with Lawrence in his third season in this offense and with capable players everywhere — should convert enough third downs to score enough points to beat Cleveland. This is a big game for the Jaguars. They need to prove they can respond to the disappointment of Week 1.

Brent Martineau, Sports Director of Action Sports Jax

• The Jaguars will win if they: They win on turnover margin. That’s a rule in the NFL, but it was the reason the Jags lost on Sunday and a big reason they lost in Cleveland last December. The Jags need to capitalize on their opportunities and maximize their possessions against a stingy Browns defense.
• The Browns win if: The Browns will win if Watson can get back to his Texans magic. The Jaguars want to make sure Watson continues to struggle, and if they can do that, Jacksonville should win the game. Watson can’t rely on Chubb because he’s out of the game, as is Njoku. Watson needs to improve his offensive line after allowing six sacks and 17 quarterback hits against Dallas.
• Martineau sees it this way: Last week was very disappointing, but that doesn’t change my opinion that the Jaguars are a good football team. Good football teams bounce back. Good football teams win at home. The Jaguars will do it on Sunday, but it won’t be easy. It will be a 23-13 win.

JP Shadrick, senior reporter for jaguars.com

• The Jaguars win if: They can slow down the Browns pass rush under Garrett. The rest of the defense is a strong unit as well, including Owusu-Koramoah. A first down is going to be huge for this Jaguars team. Make it to second and fourth downs, because as we saw late in the game last week, second and ten leads to third and ten (or longer).
• The Jaguars win if: They force Watson to make poor decisions, and the Jaguars run effectively all day long. Watson will likely be without his top tight end prospect, and he will be under scrutiny this week heading into Week 2. It will be important to watch how he handles criticism. Watson has won all six starts against the Jags in his career, but the last one was in the 2020 season. We’ll see if times have changed.
• Shadrick sees it this way: This should be a classic bounce-back game for the Jaguars, but this is the NFL and we saw just last week how quickly “shoulds” can change. The Browns will have to come into the Florida heat to face a Jags team that has heard all week that they literally dropped the ball in Week 1. It’s way too early for “must-wins,” but the Jaguars could really use this game with road trips to Buffalo and Houston coming up next.