Forecast models come into focus as the chances of development for next week increase

PEMBROKE PARK, Florida. – A tropical system could form over the southern Gulf next week and threaten the northern Gulf Coast through next weekend

The early stages of a tropical system that is increasingly likely to form over the Gulf of Mexico next week will slowly intensify over the western Caribbean this weekend. Models are gradually becoming clearer, showing the northern Gulf Coast as a growing threat through next weekend, but key details – including future strength and areas most at risk – remain unclear.

Those interested from southern Louisiana to the west coast of Florida should closely monitor the forecasts into next week.

While we continue to monitor trends here in South Florida, forecast models currently indicate that a direct threat next week is likely to be just west of us.

Slow organization in the first half of next week

As we’ve discussed in our newsletters all week, the system will form within a large-scale cyclone stretching from the eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean, known as the Central American Gyre, or CAG.

The CAG is firmly anchored across Central America today, with a strong dip in the upper atmosphere jet stream helping to increase the storm threat on its eastern side over the western Caribbean this morning.

This disorganized storm region is the development phase of the system we will be tracking next week. The unsettled weather will continue and intensify this weekend into early next week as a more concentrated low pressure system forms around the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of next week.

By the end of next week, the threat to the northern Gulf will grow

The nightly weather forecasts have come into focus. Our most reliable forecast models indicate that the northern Gulf Coast faces an increasing threat through next weekend.

Although the European forecast model and its ensembles continue to trend to the left and observe developments over the central Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS forecast model and its scenarios trend to the right and extend into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, the gap between the two camps has shrunk considerably since yesterday.

Forecast models have generally slowed the system’s development and progress for next week, and have now pushed potential impacts into next weekend. This has increased the likelihood that the system will be caught in a jet stream digging into the southern U.S. late next week, which would bring a developing storm toward the northern Gulf.

The models are currently in good agreement that a high pressure system is over the southern half of the Florida peninsula, which would essentially block any system from making a direct path to South Florida. Because tropical storms and hurricanes have a long reach, even edge effects can have an impact. So we’ll continue to monitor the forecasts, but at least for now, the forecast models suggest that whatever comes out of this will stay west of us.

There is still a chance that the system will fail to form next week, remain broad and underdeveloped, and become stuck in the southern Gulf or move toward Mexico, but today that scenario seems increasingly unlikely.

I would like to encourage all residents of the northern and northeastern Gulf region, including the west coast of Florida, to check the weather forecast a little more frequently next week.

Some areas in the open Atlantic need to be monitored, but no threat to the country

The National Hurricane Center has identified three areas over the open Atlantic where flooding could occur.

The two areas over the central Atlantic – the easternmost system is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon – have only a very small window of opportunity for their development this weekend, but are moving out to sea and pose no threat to land.

The latest area to watch between Africa and the Caribbean islands is associated with a tropical wave that will begin moving away from Africa next week. Although models suggest this disturbance could continue to develop into next week, it will stay well clear of land areas for now.