Future Tropical Storm Helene – Risk of Hurricane in Florida

An area in the northwest Caribbean is being closely monitored.
A tropical storm is likely to develop in the next few days.
It is expected to develop into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
Most forecast models predict that the hurricane will reach Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
The hurricane could reach severe proportions when it makes landfall.
In parts of the south, the effects could last until Friday.

Tropical Storm Helene is expected to form in the western Caribbean and could strengthen into a powerful hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.

Those interested in the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the situation closely, keep abreast of the weather forecast for the coming days and have appropriate hurricane plans ready.

Where it is right now: There is an extensive low pressure system in the western Caribbean. In this area, thunderstorms are gradually becoming more organized.

It is called “Invest 97L,” a convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features it monitors for future developments.

The NHC has also scheduled its first Hurricane Hunter mission to the western Caribbean this afternoon.

(Improve your forecast with our detailed hourly breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro Experience.)

(The possible area of tropical development is indicated by the polygon, color-coded by the likelihood of development over the next seven days, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance, if one already exists.)

Here’s when a storm might form and where it might go:

– Monday-Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models indicate that a tropical depression or storm could form as early as late Monday or Tuesday. By late Tuesday, Helene could approach Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba as a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane. Locally heavy rains and strong wind gusts are possible in these areas.

– Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba, especially early on. We then expect Helene to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico, most likely as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands could reach parts of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.

– Thursday: While there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, we expect Helene to make landfall as a hurricane, possibly a strong hurricane, sometime Thursday. Although computer forecast models suggest the most likely location for landfall is somewhere between Florida’s Big Bend and the Panhandle, keep in mind that hurricane impacts (storm surge, wind, rain) often occur far from the center. There are still some computer ensemble model forecasts with tracks as far west as Florida’s west coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana, so anyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast for possible upcoming changes.

– Friday: This system will most likely continue inland with weakening winds, but will cause localized flooding rain in parts of the Southeast.

Model forecast distances

(The lines in this graphic represent some of the many predictions from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but they serve as a guide for constructing the projected trajectory.)

How strong could it be: Helene could develop into an extremely strong hurricane in the Gulf.

That’s because heat content is a favorable component for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico’s heat content has reached a record high for this time of year, according to tropical scientist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami.

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(This map shows not only areas of warm water, but also areas of warm deep water, which plays an important role in the formation and activation of tropical cyclones.)

But it’s not just warm water.

Some forecast models suggest that upper-level winds may spread across Helene, favoring strengthening rather than shearing and tipping Helene’s circulation.

For these reasons, Helene could reach intensity 3 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.

Precipitation potential: It is too early to predict additional impacts, including storm surge and winds, but we expect Helene to produce heavy rainfall generally along its path and to the east.

Parts of the Southeast are expected to see the heaviest rainfall Thursday through Friday, but some heavy rain bands could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could cause flash flooding, especially if it coincides with storm surge and is over higher ground.

Precipitation forecast

(Although not all of the rainfall shown above will come from this tropical system, they should be understood as rough estimates of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms become entrenched over a period of several hours.)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Topics, on facebook. And Blue sky.

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