Harris and Trump repeatedly talked about producing more oil. That has a problem

CNN
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Oil prices are near their lowest levels in three years, with gasoline prices falling below $3 in many parts of America. So why did Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump talk so much about expanding oil production during Tuesday night’s debate?

Harris, who has been criticized for her previous anti-fracking stance, pointed out that she was the deciding vote in the Senate to open new fracking concessions in 2022. Although Harris also repeatedly expressed her support for clean energy solutions, she rightly acknowledged that the United States has produced more oil under the Biden administration than any other country in history.

Meanwhile, Trump, who supports a rapid expansion of oil production, attacked Harris for her policy proposals that he said would ruin America’s fossil fuel business: “If she wins the election, the day after the election they will start destroying our country again and oil will be dead. Fossil fuels will be dead,” Trump said.

Trump also said, “She has a plan not to allow fracking in Pennsylvania or anywhere else,” an accusation Harris denied.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN in a phone interview Wednesday that he was “not at all worried” about the destruction of the fossil fuel industry because Americans still rely on oil for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

It is also worth noting that ending fracking, let alone ending the entire fossil fuel industry, would be counterproductive for a politician because it would anger voters by increasing gasoline prices.

Although the candidates talk about boosting fossil fuel production, it’s not clear whether America actually needs drastically more oil. (And climate scientists say that’s the exact opposite of what the planet needs.)

U.S. crude oil prices stagnated below $66 a barrel on Tuesday, their lowest since December 2021, before recovering somewhat on Wednesday.

According to AAA, gas prices are at a six-month low. Meanwhile, OPEC+, a group of major oil-producing countries, is so concerned about excess supply and weak demand in China that it has postponed plans to increase production.

According to weekly federal data, US oil production has already reached a record 13.4 million barrels per day.

Lipow said it would be “difficult” to increase U.S. production significantly to over 14 million barrels a day because drilling has already taken place in the most efficient and cheapest places.

“Yes, production can increase further. But will we increase oil production by another 50 percent? That is probably quite unlikely,” Lipow said.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, is also skeptical that there could be an increase in US production.

“As a rule, the president does not have the power to quickly ramp up U.S. oil production. The industry is running at full speed,” said McNally, who served as an energy adviser to former President George W. Bush. “Presidents can do damage. They can suddenly shut down production. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Kamala Harris would do that, though.”

Trump has boasted in recent weeks that gasoline prices have been below $2 a gallon during his time in office, and he has promised to bring gasoline prices back to that level if re-elected.

But there are some problems with that: The last time gasoline was below $2 a gallon, the world was in recession due to pandemic-related shutdowns, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Travel ground to a halt, causing demand for fuel to plummet. It got to the point where oil prices briefly went negative for the first time ever, while companies rushed to find storage space for all the unwanted barrels.

Before the pandemic, the last time gasoline prices were below $2 a gallon was in 2016, when America increased fossil fuel production so much that it created a massive oversupply of oil and gas that eventually drove several companies into bankruptcy. And before that, the last time gasoline prices were below $2 a gallon was during the global financial crisis.

So it would probably take an extreme – or catastrophic – event to push gas prices back below $2. In other words, the next president can promise whatever he wants: he can grant drilling permits and expand fracking areas. But that doesn’t mean there will be a market for all that oil – and it might make no financial sense for companies to profit from it.