Harris says violent crime is down. Trump says it’s over. Here’s a fact check.

During the campaign, former President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that violent crime had “skyrocketed” since 2020. Vice President Kamala Harris claimed violent crime has fallen to a “near 50-year low.”

Both candidates cite different federal statistics that measure violent crime; Trump cites a Justice Department survey, while Harris cites FBI data on crimes reported by police departments.

Crime researchers tell CBS News that while both are valuable metrics, the FBI data Harris cited is more reliable, and she is correct in suggesting that violent crime is at its lowest level in nearly 50 years. However, both Trump and Harris overlook the significant impact of COVID-19 when comparing current crime rates to 2020, researchers say.

Breaking down Trump’s claim that crime has ‘exploded’

At the heart of Trump’s claim that crime has “skyrocketed” is a federal survey that estimates nationwide crime rates by asking a sample of people whether they have experienced a crime in the past six months.

In a recent social media post, Trump said, “Compared to 2020, violent crime is up nearly 40 percent.” That number is consistent with estimates from the Justice Department’s most recent National Crime Victimization Survey, known as NCVS, which found That the rate of violent crime – defined as rape, robbery and aggravated assault, but excluding homicide – was about 10%, 37% higher in 2023 than in 2020.

Crime researchers say the survey results are valuable because they can capture some instances of crime that often go unreported to police. However, according to Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, the survey’s violent crime estimates exclude homicides and are limited by a margin of error.

“The 2023 NCVS showed that violent crime is likely down slightly from 2022 levels and is not statistically different from 2019 levels. Comparing a favorable NCVS year to a less favorable year is simply a selection of data source without taking into account the overall trend, “without acknowledging a potentially large margin of error,” Asher said.

What research shows about violent crime under Biden-Harris

Experts more often refer to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, which tracks crimes reported to police by participating law enforcement agencies. According to the FBI, the rate of violent crime — defined as rape, robbery, aggravated assault and murder — was about 6% lower in 2023 than in 2020.

Harris’ claim that violent crime has fallen to a “near 50-year low” is accurate, according to Asher’s analysis. The violent crime rate in 2023 is only slightly higher than the rates reported in 2014 and 2021, which are the lowest since 1970.

“Based on the FBI data, it is an accurate statement, although for accuracy reasons I prefer to say ‘reported violent crimes are at or near a 50-year low,’ since not every violent crime is reported to police,” said Asher.

The FBI’s numbers are estimates and police department participation is voluntary. However, the FBI said more than 16,000 law enforcement agencies (out of about 18,000 nationwide) provided data for 2023.

Other research confirms these trends. For example, the Major Cities Chiefs Association reported a 9.1% decrease in homicides from 2020 to 2023 in 70 major U.S. cities.

AH Datalytics found that the total number of violent crime reports was lower in 2023 compared to 2020 and that it continued to decline in 2024.

What research shows about violent crime under Trump

FBI data shows violent crime rates fell annually during Trump’s first three years in office but skyrocketed in 2020. Researchers continue to investigate this Causes of the spikeBut have pointed to a number of potential factors, including the economic and psychological toll of the pandemic, a surge in gun sales and protests following the killing of George Floyd in police custody. But they remain divided over how the protests may have contributed to the surge.

According to Jillian Turanovic, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Colorado Boulder, during widespread lockdowns, some crimes of opportunity, such as robberies, declined, while crimes such as homicides increased. She warned that using 2020 as a basis for crime comparisons was misleading.

“It is important to consider longer time horizons, especially when analyzing data from times of significant societal disruption such as the COVID-19 pandemic,” Turanovic said.

The data shows that violent crime rates have generally declined since the 1990s

Despite the discrepancies between crime surveys and reported crime rates in recent years, Turanovic said both the NCVS and FBI data show similar long-term trends.

“Both tell us that the country’s violent crime rate is substantially lower than it was in the 1990s, that violent crime rates, based on the most recent data, are largely at levels seen over the past decade, and that there is no evidence that Violent crime rates are “skyrocketing,” Turnovic said.