Helene is expected to form, rapidly intensify and make landfall in Florida as a severe storm

The National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon that a major hurricane is expected to make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday. The storm, which is still developing and will be named Helene, could be the strongest hurricane to hit the United States this season.

Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify and make landfall as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds in excess of 111 miles per hour, posing a significant threat to Florida residents.

“Although it is too early to determine the exact location and extent of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and destructive hurricane-force winds is increasing along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s west coast,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. ET bulletin.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties the same day. Helene is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend region of the Florida Panhandle, but could change course in the next few days.

In addition to strong winds, the storm threatens millions of Gulf Coast residents with up to 12 inches of rainfall and the possibility of tornadoes.

“In the past, major hurricanes have developed under similar conditions with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 mph,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Duffus.

Where is the path of the storm going?

According to a 5 p.m. ET warning, the storm is located about 315 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and moving north-northwest at 7 mph.

However, meteorologists expect the system to develop into a tropical depression or storm on its northwestern side over the next one to two days on Tuesday.

“The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm moves further west, we could see severe storm surge and flooding in Tampa,” predicted Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

But meteorologists warned residents from Louisiana to Key West, Florida, to prepare for the storm.

The National Hurricane Center issued hurricane warnings and tropical storm warnings for parts of Mexico and Cuba on Monday as the storm intensifies over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico.

The storm is expected to weaken by Friday as it moves inland across the Southeast, but heavy rain and wind gusts are expected to continue along its path.

How is Florida preparing?

Florida, which has already been hit by Hurricane Debby this season, is bracing for another storm this week. In Leon County, home to Tallahassee, 15 sandbags are available for every household to take home to brace for heavy rain and flooding.

With the forecast still uncertain, DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency in 41 counties. The declaration allows the state to implement its comprehensive emergency plan and direct resources to any logistical, rescue or evacuation operations.

“Now is the time to make an emergency plan, know your evacuation zone, and be as prepared as possible for the storm,” DeSantis said in a post on X.

Observations and warnings

As of 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for:

• Cabo Catoche, Quintana Roo, Mexico, to Tulum, Mexico

• Pinar del Río Province, Cuba

A tropical storm warning was in effect for:

• Rio Lagartos, Mexico, to Tulum, Mexico

• Artemisa Province, Cuba

• Pinar del Río Province, Cuba

• Island of Youth, Cuba

A tropical storm warning was in effect for:

• Dry Tortugas, Monroe County, Florida.

• Lower Keys, Florida, south of the Seven Mile Bridge, Monroe County, Florida.