Historian Allan Lichtman predicts who will win the 2024 election

Spoiler alert: It’s Vice President Kamala Harris.

In a video first reported by the New York Times, Lichtman said he based his prediction on thirteen key questions, or “big-picture true-false questions that provide insight into the party’s strength and ability to hold the White House.”

Key factors include whether:

• The White House party won seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections
• The incumbent president is running for re-election
• The party in the White House avoids primaries
• There is a third-party challenger
• The short-term economic situation is strong
• Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms
• The White House party has made major changes in national politics
• During his term in office there was persistent social unrest
• The White House is free of scandals, the incumbent party is charismatic
• The challenger is uncharismatic
• The incumbent is charismatic
• The party in the White House has made major shortcomings in foreign policy
• The White House party has foreign policy successes.