How the Trump and Harris presidencies could affect gas, food and housing prices

• High costs are a key concern for voters in the presidential election.
• Below we detail what Harris and Trump have proposed to reduce costs for Americans.
• This is the second part of a five-part series on the impact a Trump or Harris presidency could have on U.S. consumers.

While the pace of inflation has slowed, Americans continue to grapple with high prices at gas stations, grocery stores and more.

These high prices have become a key issue for voters as the presidential election approaches. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have outlined plans that they say will reduce costs for Americans through various measures.

This is the second part of Business Insider’s five-part series for the final stretch before the election. Monday’s post focused on investments, and now BI is looking at how each candidate would impact costs.

From the Democrats’ perspective, an economic policy book published by the Harris campaign says that they and their running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, “know that prices are still too high for middle-class families, which is why they are up “The economic priorities will be to reduce the cost of everyday necessities.”

When reached for comment, the Harris campaign referred BI to comments on previously announced policies.

On the other hand, Trump’s platform — adopted by the Republican National Committee in July — outlined 20 principles the former president would prioritize in a second term, including “ending inflation and making America affordable again.”

Taylor Rogers, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, told BI in a statement: “Trump will once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower the prices of food and other goods when we send him back to the White House.”

Here’s how a Trump or Harris presidency would affect the cost of a few things, based on the economic policy proposals the candidates have released.

Groceries

High food costs remain a key concern for voters. In a Pew Research Center survey of more than 9,000 adults conducted from late August to early September, 74% of respondents said they were concerned about the high cost of groceries.

In August, Harris released a plan to address high food costs by implementing a federal ban on food price gouging during national emergencies.

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Dan Scheitrum, an associate professor of agricultural economics who studies food price gouging at California Polytechnic State University, previously told BI that Harris’ proposal might not help much outside of a crisis, such as a natural disaster or pandemic.

“If you tried to reduce food prices today, there would be no state of emergency. “Most protective measures against price gouging would not work at all,” said Scheitrum.

Trump, on the other hand, said during a town hall meeting in September that he would lower food prices by restricting food imports to boost domestic producers. “Our farmers are currently being completely decimated. And one of the reasons for that is we allow a lot of agricultural products into our country,” Trump said.

When Trump was recently asked during a town hall meeting in Pennsylvania in October how he would lower food prices, Trump’s wide-ranging answer focused largely on immigration, saying that “we’re going to do a lot” to get a handle on high food prices .

Although details are few on Trump’s plan to restrict food imports, it is on par with the former president’s pledge to raise tariffs in a second term – and it has been criticized by experts who said it would actually spur inflation .

Housing

Another key issue is the high cost of housing. Harris’ policy book says she will reduce rent and mortgage prices by building 3 million new housing units and expanding the low-income housing tax credit, which allows private and nonprofit developers to build affordable rental housing.

“Right now, a severe housing shortage is one of the factors driving up costs,” Harris said at a campaign rally in Las Vegas in September.

Additionally, according to her campaign, Harris plans to give Americans a down payment of up to $25,000 to help them finance their home purchase.

Trump’s platform said the former president would address housing affordability by “promoting homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers” and eliminating “unnecessary regulations that drive up housing costs.” The platform didn’t specify which regulations Trump would cut, but he said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September that “regulations cost 30% of a new home and we’re going to open up parts of the state for large scale cuts.” Housing.”

Rogers, the RNC spokesman, told BI that Trump would “secure the border, ban mortgages for illegal immigrants that drive up home prices, and eliminate federal regulations that drive up housing costs,” reiterating his promise to release federal land for construction purposes.

Imported goods

Trump has pledged to impose a sweeping tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, potentially driving up prices for most goods imported from other countries.

Imported goods that could be affected by the tariffs cover a wide range of products. According to the Census Bureau, the major U.S. import categories that would be affected include automobiles ($320 billion so far this year), drugs for human and veterinary use ($155 billion), food and beverages ( $140 billion), furniture ($27 billion) and other household appliances ($25 billion).

And it’s not just popular consumer goods that would cost more. Economists are also concerned about the impact on imported iron and steel mills. As these become more expensive, the products they use as components also become more expensive.

While Trump insists that other countries would pay for the tariffs, many economists agree that the price increases would largely come at the expense of American businesses and households. For example, an analysis by the Tax Policy Center found that all income groups would pay higher taxes because of Trump’s tariffs, with the lowest-income households paying about $320 more in taxes and middle-income households paying $1,350 more.

Harris hasn’t shared many details about her tariff plans. However, President Joe Biden has imposed increased tariffs on products like steel, aluminum and semiconductors, and Harris would most likely continue those measures if she wins the election.

Trump and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, have pointed out that the Biden administration has retained Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods – in fact, Biden has retained tariffs on about $15 billion worth of Chinese imports. Dollar increased.

gas

Hardly any other price is monitored as closely in politics as the cost of filling up at the gas station. Gasoline prices have skyrocketed at times during the Biden-Harris administration, including in the summer of 2022, when they reached a national average of more than $5 per gallon before slipping back down to about $3 a gallon.

Energy prices are also notoriously sensitive because presidents lack the power to control complex global and regional markets. Even if the White House taps the strategic oil reserve, it will be more of a symbolic gesture.

Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” and vowed to strengthen the fossil fuel industry by cutting regulations and issuing more leases for drilling on federal lands.

It is unclear how much desire oil producers have to expand production. The Biden-Harris administration has also ensured a record high in U.S. oil production.

Harris has vowed to go further and call for stronger permitting reform. She also supports more government subsidies for renewable energy.

Prescription medications

As a candidate in 2016, Trump repeatedly promised to give the federal government the power to negotiate prescription drug prices, although he did not enforce that measure as president.

In the White House, Trump initially broke with pharmaceuticals industry by proposing to tie Medicare drug prices to international standards, but he has since backed away from doing so ambitious cost control policy. Vance has advocated for transparency in drug pricing.

Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act to give Medicare the ability to negotiate the prices of some drugs. She wants to expand the federal $2,000 cap on drug spending and the $35 monthly cap on insulin to all Americans.

Correction: October 29, 2024 – An earlier version of this story misidentified one of the major U.S. import categories. The category worth $320 billion so far this year has been automobiles, not a separate category involving drugs.