Hurricane Helene is expected to form and rapidly intensify before hitting Florida

CNN
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Hurricane Helene is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.

The storm has not yet formed but is expected to soon, so the National Hurricane Center has designated it as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” to warn of the imminent danger.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. Similar warnings will be issued for the USA in the coming days. A possible landfall in Florida could occur as early as Thursday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms raging across the far western Caribbean. This stormy weather will potentially dump flooding rains across parts of Central America, Mexico, Cuba, and Jamaica as it attempts to form into a tropical system.

While its exact trajectory and strength may still change, Helene will move north over the extremely warm waters into the Gulf of Mexico, which could strengthen its collision course with the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center predicts Helene will rapidly intensify over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico – an event that is becoming increasingly likely given global warming caused by fossil fuel pollution.

Where the system ultimately makes landfall, strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surge are likely. The system will also stir up seas in the Gulf and could produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents across much of the basin, especially later this week.

The National Hurricane Center reports a landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, but everyone from Florida’s Gulf Coast to eastern Louisiana should be on alert this week.

Confidence in the exact trajectory of the system will increase after its formation, since without a fixed center, forecast models have difficulty determining exactly where the system might move.

Ensemble forecast models — groupings of many model runs that began with slight differences to reflect a wide range of outcomes — focus on the eastern Gulf Coast as the area most likely to see landfall later this week. When ensemble tracks are closer together, it means the track can be more confident.

This storm is expected to form a tighter grouping along the eastern Gulf Coast, but since it has not yet formed, there is no guarantee that it will.

Regardless of the exact direction, heavy rains are possible across much of the Southeast starting midweek. According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a Level 2 to 4 flood risk for Thursday across much of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and parts of the Carolinas.

The storm could be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. The three other storms, Beryl, Debby and Francine, rapidly intensified before reaching the United States as hurricanes.

The last time four or more hurricanes hit the United States in one season was the devastating 2020 season.