Hurricane Helene thwarts Trump and Harris’ plans for North Carolina

Rebuilding from the unprecedented destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina could take months, if not years. Entire communities are destroyed, dozens of them of residents are evicted. With the presidential election less than 26 days away, both parties are grappling with the unpredictable political fallout.

For Vice President Kamala Harris, who was named the Democratic nominee just two and a half months ago, the aftermath of the hurricane meant the suspension of campaign events. That’s wasted time when every hour counts in Harris’ world, especially when it’s up to Democrats to flip a historically red state.

However, she will be back this weekend, hosting a political rally in Greenville – a part of the state not affected by the hurricane – for her first political event there since Helene hit 17 days ago.

For former President Donald Trump, the devastation in deep red counties could hurt their voters’ ability to turn out at the polls. As state officials addressed voting issues this week and gave affected counties additional flexibility through early voting, there was widespread pushback from both Democrats and Republicans to the misinformation spread by some members of the Republican Party, including Trump himself.

And Republicans find themselves in an undeniably unusual position: In the final stretch of the race, they are defending what was once a fixture on the Republican map. Democrats have managed to win North Carolina only twice since 1964.

A close, unpredictable race

Neither side sees data that suggests the hurricane has fundamentally shaken the race. Instead, members of both parties say things are as close as ever. Only now it is more unpredictable than ever.

“We always play like we’re one point behind,” a Trump campaign official said. “The biggest thing for us is the momentum we’re seeing on the ground… it’s not energy that we see everywhere from the Kamala Harris team. I think their energy, their drive has kind of waned.”

However, Morgan Jackson, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state who has advised Gov. Roy Cooper and Attorney General Josh Stein, said just the opposite is true.

“We see incredible enthusiasm for Democrats. “We see that Republican enthusiasm has waned a little bit, and a lot of that remains, and that’s because they don’t like their candidates,” Jackson said, referring to Trump and embattled gubernatorial candidate Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. “They don’t like…abortion bans, social media conspiracy theorists and election deniers.”

The back-and-forth is playing out as North Carolina increasingly becomes the focus of both parties’ strategies to capture the White House. Harris could significantly impede Trump’s path if she wins the state, while Trump could block Harris if he keeps North Carolina and takes a blue wall state like Pennsylvania. Unlike previous presidential terms, the Democrats have a large organization in the state that includes volunteers and 340 employees. It’s an operation that dwarfs Trump’s. Still, Republicans are betting the state will remain reliably red.

However, there are signs that some Republicans are ready to turn their backs on Trump. In March, more than 250,000 people voted for Nikki Haley in the North Carolina GOP primary, even though she had already dropped out. In 2020, Trump won the state by around 75,000 votes.

Trump has weighed in on the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to Hurricane Helene, saying it did not move quickly enough to help people in rural areas. But his comments veered into conspiracy theories and misinformation. These included the accusation, without evidence, that the federal government had deliberately refused to provide aid to the Republicans affected by Helene and that FEMA had run out of money because of spending on illegal immigrants.

He was also contradicted by members of his own party, including Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who had praised relief efforts and criticized those who engaged in “political posturing, finger-pointing or conspiracy theories” in statements widely seen as critical of Trump allegations were viewed. However, after Harris posted Tillis’ statement on social media, he responded that he was actually talking about her.

“Republicans will do everything they can to make this a botched response,” said Thomas Mills, a veteran North Carolina Democratic strategist. “So far it’s not working.”

Jackson argued that those affected could see that Trump was trying to politicize the hurricane.

“When people care about safety and security and you focus on politics for personal gain, that’s a problem,” Jackson said. “This is an election problem for candidates who are pushing these narratives, these false narratives.”

Jonathan Felts, a longtime Republican strategist in North Carolina who is working on a super PAC supporting Robinson, said Trump has solid support in rural parts of the state. He added that it would be wise for Republicans to push more for voter turnout and early voting in the area to ensure residents continue to vote even after the disaster.

Harris “still doesn’t have a message for rural North Carolina, and the storm hasn’t changed that,” he said.

A Trump campaign official pointed to efforts to expand the Trump tent with surrogates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds to make gains among GOP voters who have defected to Haley . Trump’s vice presidential running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, was in the state on Wednesday. This person made it clear that the effort to expand the coalition was aimed at “historically Democratic Blue Dog voters.”

Even though Harris is out of state, her political operations are still ongoing, including the upcoming visit from former President Bill Clinton. On Thursday, the campaign hosted a watch party for a Univision town hall event with Latino voters in Raleigh. In other events, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear will visit Friday, as will officials who worked to defend the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack.

Helping residents recover – and choose

The Trump campaign believes the law recently passed by the North Carolina Legislature will go a long way toward resolving the voting problems that have been troubling it in the western part of the state. But it is ready to take further steps.

“If we need to get volunteers out to cut down trees, we will send volunteers out there, cut down the trees and make sure they leave the driveway to vote,” a campaign official said. “We’re working on what it’s going to look like to make sure that we have canning drives and cookouts at these early voting centers to make sure that our voters can come out to get something to eat and then while they’re doing that, make sure they vote.”

Trump had set up a GoFundMe page to help victims of the storm in several states, including North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. More than $7.6 million has been raised so far. Trump’s campaign team did not say whether he personally donated.

Harris’ organization, well-financed and expansive, is well ahead in North Carolina in this regard. For weeks, it has been hauling semi-trucks of water to western North Carolina, delivering supplies and transporting toiletries, batteries and non-perishable food from surrounding states to the hardest-hit areas, including dropping off at community and distribution centers. The Harris campaign also hosted community meals that fed 120 families, and it is organizing similar events and spending more than $30,000 on relief efforts. A voter hotline has also been set up, with hundreds of live agents said to be available to help voters by phone or text message.

“Our hearts go out to the North Carolinians affected by Hurricane Helene, and we are working closely with our legal and voter protection teams and the NC Democratic Party to ensure every eligible voter can safely make their voice heard in this election.” Harris campaign spokesperson Dory MacMillan, based in North Carolina, said in a statement.

Trump’s campaign responded by suggesting that voters there balked at the hurricane misinformation he and his allies spread online, saying he showed up in a hurricane-ravaged part of Georgia before Harris or President Joe Biden visited. Biden and Harris did not want to get in the way of state and local officials working to reconnect affected communities where roads and other services were cut off, Biden said at the time. After Biden toured North Carolina, Harris finally visited once in her official capacity after visiting Georgia to highlight the relief effort. Trump visited North Carolina once and held a town hall there.

“He talked about how FEMA misused dollars,” the second Trump official said, accusing the administration of misusing emergency dollars, something Biden’s team has repeatedly refuted.

Zeb Smathers, the mayor of Canton, North Carolina, which is facing a significant recovery from the storm, said the hardest-hit residents have no room for politics and could push back against anyone who uses the hurricane for political purposes.

“There is a time for politics, but I think the American people, who have lost so much, deserve to have their leaders put politics aside and take leadership,” Smathers said, adding that ultimately in places what happened to his city. “We’ve been able to work together and get so many resources for our people, and that’s what the American people need to see. Let this be one of our legacies from all these crises.”