Hurricane Milton calls for watches in Florida

Milton continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect along Florida’s western Gulf Coast.
Milton will bring life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to Florida midweek.
Heavy rainfall will bring a risk of widespread flooding.

Hurricane Milton has prompted hurricane and storm surge warnings to be issued along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds and flooding rains are expected through midweek.

If you are in an area prone to storm surges, you should follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate if ordered. This is a serious situation as the National Hurricane Center is predicting a storm surge of 8 to 12 feet above ground level along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay.

(CARD TRACKER: Spaghetti models and more)

Hurricane and storm surge warnings apply here: A hurricane watch is in effect across much of Florida’s western Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee north to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or greater) are generally possible within the observation area within 48 hours

Tropical storm watches extend north and south of the hurricane watch into Florida’s Big Bend and along Florida’s southwest coast.

A storm surge watch extends from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means that a life-threatening rise in water levels due to storm surges is possible in the region, usually within 48 hours.

Here is the current status on Milton: The hurricane is raging over the western Gulf of Mexico, 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa. It is currently a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 miles per hour and heading east-southeast at 8 miles per hour.

Milton has strengthened rapidly since Sunday, representing a wind increase of at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours or less.

Here is the current forecast for timing and intensity: Milton is expected to become a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger sometime Monday. It could reach maximum Category 4 intensity over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast is for Milton to experience some weakening as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear and dry air.

However, it is important to note that this possible weakening will not reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including severe storm surge. Milton could also grow larger as it approaches Florida, allowing the effects of wind, storm surge and rainfall to spread over a larger area.

(The red shaded area shows the potential track of the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that for any tropical cyclone, impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) typically extend beyond the forecast track spread.)

Iimpacts forecast

Storm surge

The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast calls for storm surge to reach up to 8 to 12 feet above the ground when the peak of the storm surge coincides with high tide along Florida’s west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could reach up to 5 to 10 feet south of Fort Myers Beach and in areas north of Tampa Bay.

Expect adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below in future forecast updates based on the track from Milton.

The storm surge will be most destructive near and south of where the center of the storm crosses the coast. As previously mentioned, if you are in an area prone to storm surges, you should follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate if ordered.

Rain flooding

Rain has drenched Florida since the weekend as a front moved across the state. Because of this rain prior to Milton’s arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself through midweek, flood warnings are in place across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Totals could be 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Peninsula, with up to 15 inches locally by Thursday. This could result in significant flash flooding and river flooding.

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(This should be interpreted as a general outlook for where the heaviest rain could fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall over a period of a few hours.)

Wind damage

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to Florida’s western Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday. The strongest winds, which could cause structural damage, down trees and knock out power, will occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast, which is still somewhat uncertain.

Areas further from the landfall point on the Florida Peninsula will also see some strong wind gusts, which could at least knock down trees and cause isolated power outages.

All hurricane preparations or recovery and reconstruction efforts should be completed by Tuesday evening. After that time, these efforts could be dangerous.

Below is a look at the maximum wind danger based on Milton’s current track. Note that this forecast may change in future updates.