Hurricane Rafael will hit Cuba as a severe hurricane

Hurricane Rafael is now expected to move away from the southeastern Gulf Coast and is expected to become a major hurricane as it makes landfall in western Cuba later on Wednesday.

Sustained wind speeds are around 110 mph, meaning Rafael is a Category 2 hurricane, just a hair away from becoming a Category 3 hurricane (111-129 mph).

Rafael is still expected to have some impact on the Florida Keys and the southwestern tip of the peninsula as it moves through Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Here you can find out what is happening with Hurricane Rafael and how the situation is currently developing.

Where is Hurricane Rafael?

Hurricane Rafael is still moving northwest at about 14 mph. It will move just east of the Isle of Youth in the next few hours and make landfall in western Cuba as a major hurricane later today. From there, Hurricane Rafael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to turn almost directly west toward Mexico and the southeastern tip of Texas.

Location of Tropical Storm Rafael: 21.4N 81.9W
- Approximately 60 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth
- Approximately 130 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba
Maximum continuous wind: 110 miles per hour
Current movement: Northwest (320 degrees) at 14 miles per hour
Minimal central pressure: 994MB, 29.36 inches

Will Hurricane Rafael impact Florida?

A tropical storm warning is already in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches are expected in these areas.

Tropical storm force winds, particularly gusty, are expected to impact these areas later Wednesday and into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes are also possible over the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida peninsula through Wednesday evening.

Another tropical disturbance is brewing in the southwest Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure system several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It is expected to move westward over the next few days, while a low pressure area could form near the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday evening or Thursday.

Gradual development is possible toward the end of the week as it moves north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The chances of the system forming in the next seven days are slim.

What dangers can be expected from Hurricane Rafael?

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected today across western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of west-central Cuba and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today and this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible further east in central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba, through early Thursday. Total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected in parts of western Cuba, with isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches expected in higher elevations. This will lead to flooding and mudslides. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected in the Cayman Islands.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys.

STORM TOWER: Storm surge could raise water levels up to 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along Cuba’s southern coast in the hurricane warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of storm surge and high tide causes normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water moving inland from the coast. The water could reach the following heights above ground anywhere in the indicated areas if the peak rise occurs at the time of high tide:

Dry Tortugas…1-3 feet
Lower Florida Keys…1-2 feet

TORNADOS: A few tornadoes are possible this evening across the Florida Keys and southwest mainland Florida.

SURF: Waves caused by Rafael are expected to impact much of the western Caribbean over the next day or so and also spread east to west across most of the Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult your local weather office products.

Hurricane Rafael Warnings, Watches and Warnings

Summary of watches and warnings in effect for Hurricane Rafael:

A hurricane warning applies to:

Cuban provinces Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Island of Youth

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila
Lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
Dry Tortugas

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will officially end on November 30th.