Hurricane season resurfaces last month

CNN
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Halloween may be over, but hurricane season still has a few unsettling tricks in store for its final month.

Three tropical hotspots in the Atlantic basin are worth watching in the coming days as a strange hurricane season continues to exceed all expectations.

One of those trouble areas is in the western Caribbean and has a high risk of developing into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once it develops, it could strengthen into a tropical storm. But exactly when and where a tropical depression develops in the coming days will have a significant impact on where it could go next.

The next tropical storm to form will be named Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.

It’s still too early to determine the exact direction the potential storm could take, but the system could drift toward the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain and possibly some gusty winds are expected next week in the western Caribbean, parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

The U.S. Gulf Coast may finally have some atmospheric protection on its side after several devastating hurricane strikes this season. Blustery, disruptive upper-level winds are expected to develop over the Gulf next week, which could tear apart any system that moves into the region.

In the other two areas, the likelihood of tropical development next week is low.

Stormy weather that brought record-breaking rains to Puerto Rico on Thursday and drenched parts of the northeastern Caribbean on Friday has a small window to form into a tropical system that slides westward in the coming days. Regardless of developments, additional flooding precipitation could reach Puerto Rico as well as the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola through the weekend and into next week.

The other area is in the open Atlantic and is unlikely to pose a threat to the country regardless of developments.

November to stay active

Hurricane season typically ends in November, but this year has already proven to be anything but typical.

This season is above average for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).

This year, the U.S. has been hit by five hurricanes, despite taking a big break from the season and confusing experts during what should be the busiest time of the year.

Therefore, it is no surprise that this trend is expected to continue in November. Although storms do occur in November, they are significantly less common overall, and storms hitting the United States are extremely rare.

According to NOAA, at least 125 tropical storms and hurricanes have struck the Atlantic in November since the late 1800s. According to hurricane expert Michael Lowry, 98 percent of the storms mentioned reach the USA before November.

Storms that form in November tend to occur in the Caribbean and the southwestern and central parts of the Atlantic, where warm waters last longer and storm-damaging winds tend to be weaker. The Gulf of Mexico is not a common source of tropical problems in a typical November, as storm-damaging winds intensify over the area in late fall.

For something tropical to form and remain active in the Gulf, it would likely need a boost from extremely warm water. The Gulf isn’t as hot as it was when it fueled Helene and Milton, but it’s still warmer than the November average.

Leaving aside the development opportunities in the next few days, the Caribbean could remain a tropical hotspot until the second half of November, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but tropical systems are not tied to that date. Since the late 1800s, about two dozen tropical storms and hurricanes have struck the basin in December.