In Milwaukee, the Phillies can reach their first big goal for 2024

In Milwaukee, the Phillies can reach their first big goal for 2024. Originally published on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The Milwaukee Brewers? Sounds familiar. Aren’t they the team with the mascot that slides down a winding slide after hitting home runs? Also known as the Brew Crew? Used to be the Seattle Pilots? Used to be in the American League? Play “The Beer Barrel Polka” during the seventh-inning break? Bratwurst? Robin Yount? Does that ring a bell?

In other words, when it comes to Phillies rivalries, the Brewers barely make a dent. They were a drag on the team’s path to winning the 2008 World Series. They’re the team that signed Rhys Hoskins as a free agent last winter. That’s pretty much it.

That’s about to change, at least temporarily. Over the next three nights at American Family Field, Milwaukee will be squarely in the middle of the Phils and must accomplish the first major team goal they had when they first met in Clearwater in February: win the division and avoid a wild-card round appearance.

Even though the Phillies have been successful in overtime, made it to the World Series in 2022 and were one win away from returning last year, manager Rob Thomson has made it clear that getting five days off after the regular season ends on Sept. 29 in Washington is a top priority.

Winning two of three games in the just-concluded series against the Mets was important because the Phillies are trying to accumulate enough wins to finish with the best record in baseball, giving them home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Catcher JT Realmuto said it was like the playoffs. “These are the types of games you’re going to play in the postseason. These are the types of opponents we’re going to play,” he said. “It’s no secret that we love playing here at The Bank and that we feel like we have the best home-field advantage in baseball. First place is very important to us and we’re going to play as well as we can until we get it.”

However, the upcoming series in the Badger State presents a more immediate opportunity and has a more direct impact on how teams will be seeded when the regular season ends in two weeks.

If all goes well, the Phillies will win the National League East, the Brewers the Central and the Dodgers the West. The team with the third-best record will have to play in the wild-card round to advance.

The Phillies currently hold a four-game lead over Milwaukee. Here’s what’s at stake:

• Having swept Milwaukee at The Bank in the first week of June, the Phillies need just one more win to win the tiebreaker.

• If the Phillies win, they would be up 8 points with 10 games left to play. Any combination of Phillies wins and Brewers losses totaling 3 points after that guarantees a first-round bye.

• If the Phillies win two of three games, the magic number is 5.

• If the Phillies lose two of three, it’s 7.

• If the Phillies are defeated, it’s 9. And the tiebreaker would be the best record within the division. Right now, Milwaukee is 30-19 against the NLC with just three games remaining (at Pittsburgh). The Phillies are 26-18 with four games remaining in New York and the final weekend in Washington.

Even though the Phillies beat the Brewers more than three months ago, it’s worth noting that each of those games was decided by one or two runs, one of them in extra innings. Venue also matters. The Phillies are 52-25 (.675) at Citizens Bank Park this year and 38-34 (.528) everywhere else.

Milwaukee has a better record (50-37) and run differential (+76) than the Phillies (46-40, +15) since leaving Citizens Bank Park. And there are two notable reasons for that.

Rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio had a .211 batting average with a .592 OPS in that series, but he’s only gotten better since then. Through Sunday, he had a .308/.909 batting average in his next 81 games. Shortstop Willy Adames left Philadelphia with 9 home runs in 63 games and then struck out 23 in his next 86 games.

The pitchers’ duels also offer exciting details. Ranger Suarez (12-6, 3.05) will face Aaron Civale (6-8, 4.57) on Monday. That looks good on paper, but Suarez still has something to prove. His earned run average is 6.02 in his last eight starts.

Game 2 will pit Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60) against Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49), followed by Aaron Nola (12-8, 3.62) against Freddy Peralta (11-8, 3.75). Nola will also look to improve. He has failed to complete five innings in his last two starts while allowing a total of 11 earned runs.

All games begin at 7:40 p.m. EDT on NBC Sports Philadelphia.