In the fight for the NL wild card, the Diamondbacks are in danger of missing the playoffs

PHOENIX – In about 48 hours, the Arizona Diamondbacks will find themselves in one of three situations. They don’t have full control over their fate anyway. And each possibility shares a number of common characteristics. Stress, fear, pressure.

Maybe they’ll save an NL wild card bid and the franchise’s second straight postseason appearance in over 20 years. They may miss the playoffs entirely, forfeiting the 83.1 percent chance of playing in October that Fangraphs gave them earlier this week. Or they end the weekend not knowing where they stand and turn their attention to Monday’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves – a veritable nightmare for the defending National League champions.

The Diamondbacks’ 5-3 season-opening loss to the Padres on Friday officially knocked them out of playoff position. With two games left in the regular season, they are in a virtual tie with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, each tied above each other in the tiebreaker.

“A lot of people ask me certain questions about the stability of our team. “Are we OK?” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said. “We are great. We’re fine.”

After falling behind 4-0 early in the first, the Diamondbacks got two runs back in the bottom half, sparked by Corbin Carroll’s 412-foot solo shot. But one of the NL’s most potent offenses failed to complete the comeback against Yu Darvish and the Padres’ lockdown bullpen.

For the Diamondbacks to get the win without having to endure Monday’s Mets-Braves doubleheader, they need to win both of their remaining games against the Padres and then get some help: Either the Mets lose to the Brewers again or the Braves lose one against the Royals in a scenario that puts the Diamondbacks in the postseason regardless of what happens Monday.

However, if even one of those results fails to materialize, the Diamondbacks’ best hope is for the Mets-Braves doubleheader to decide where they end up. If the Diamondbacks are defeated by the Padres and the Mets and Braves win at least one of their next two games, MLB will likely consider the Diamondbacks eliminated without having to play the rescheduled doubleheader. The Athletics Jayson Stark reported.

As of Saturday morning, the Diamondbacks’ playoff chances had fallen to 33.7 percent, trailing the Mets (71.2 percent) and Braves (91.1 percent).

Perhaps one of the few positives for the Diamondbacks is that the Padres secured wild-card home-field advantage on Friday, meaning the final two games of their series with the Diamondbacks will have no bearing on their playoff position.

Lovullo has repeatedly pointed out that their unlikely rise to the World Series began a season ago and that a 1-0 loss to the Houston Astros in the second-to-last game of the regular season didn’t matter after a Reds loss earned them a wild card Berth for the Diamondbacks. Lovullo’s argument: His team overcame narrow postseason leads at this time a year ago, and they can do it again – but only if they get help again.

43,310 spectators – the eighth-highest attendance at Chase Field this season – watched the Diamondbacks’ fourth loss in five games. The franchise will record its highest average home attendance since 2008. That’s pretty much all that’s certain with two games to go.

Whether the venue’s home team will reward an apparently revitalized fan base with a wildcard spot remains to be seen.

Most likely the Mets or the Braves will be responsible.

“It was cool to see the fans tonight and see the energy they brought,” said substitute Kevin Ginkel. “Hopefully we can deliver for them.”

(Top photo of manager Torey Lovullo on Saturday: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)