Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani

For the first time in 43 years, the Dodgers and Yankees will face off in a World Series clash of true heavyweights.

They entered the season as favorites to win their respective pennants and achieved this with the best record in their league.

This is the first time that five former MVP winners will play in the same World Series. That leaves a lot of tempting options to win the series MVP and helps us place my favorite bet on winning the award at a pretty long number.

Surprisingly, Juan Soto (+550, FanDuel) is not one of the former MVPs in this series, although he lost fairly narrowly to Bryce Harper in 2021.

Does the difference in betting odds between Soto in his current form deserve to be so far away from Shohei Ohtani (+220) and Aaron Judge (+500)?

2024 World Series MVP odds

Soto sent the Yankees to the World Series with one of the most impressive at-bats in recent memory, hitting a three-run home run off an elite pitcher in Hunter Gaddis.

Throughout the postseason, Soto has an OPS of 1.106 and has batted .667.

Both marks are significantly better than Ohtani and Judge achieved, and Soto’s process at the plate suggests it was far more than just luck. He has a 70% hard-hit rate in the playoffs and an xBA of .367.

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Game 1 of the series falls on Soto’s 26th birthday, which seems crazy given the reputation he’s already earned as a clutch player in the postseason. In 168 career playoff at-bats, Soto has a .906 OPS and a .535 slug rate.

The adage that pitching wins championships is put to the test by the way the Yankees and Dodgers found their way to the World Series. The Dodgers’ lineup has a wRC+ of 122 in the postseason, while the Yankees hold a mark of 117.

Dodgers pitchers have a 4.36 ERA and 4.97 xFIP in their two playoff series.

The Yankees’ pitchers were more effective, with an ERA of 3.27 and an xFIP of 4.14, but those numbers are still a far cry from what many recent AL pennant winners have posted, and they faced offenses that were drastically worse were than those of the Dodgers.

It seems unlikely that any pitcher will have the success needed in this matchup to win MVP, especially considering how effective both teams were at extending playoff punches. Working many innings for each pitcher should prove difficult.

Of the last 20 World Series MVPs, only three have been pitchers, and it’s hard to imagine this season being one of the outliers in which a pitcher takes home the award.

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That makes me like Soto even more in this market, especially considering how soft the Dodgers pitching staff looks.

After his incredible play in the ALCS, it almost feels too easy to pick Soto, but at +550 odds, I don’t think it’s possible to back the hottest hitter from either side in this series.

Best bet: Juan Soto to win World Series MVP (FanDuel, +550 | Play to +500)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180 unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.