Kari Lake closes gap in Senate race, new polls show

Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake has closed the gap on Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s 2024 U.S. Senate race with just days to go, according to a new poll.

Lake, a Trump-backed candidate who lost her bid for Arizona’s gubernatorial race in 2022, has trailed Gallego for weeks as both seek to fill independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s position. Sinema, a former Democrat, is not seeking re-election.

The race could play a key role in which party controls the Senate in the new term. Democrats currently hold the lead in the upper house of Congress with a slim 51-seat majority, thanks in part to independents like Sinema aligning with the party. But several forecasters have predicted that Republicans have a chance to flip the chamber next week.

In a recent AtlasIntel poll, Lake appeared to be gaining ground on Gallego, with the Democrat leading her among likely Arizona voters by just half a percentage point (48.4 percent to 47.9 percent). The poll was conducted Oct. 25-29 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, meaning the gap between candidates is too wide to call.

In the same poll conducted earlier this month, Gallego led Lake by 4 points among 1,440 likely voters (50 percent to 46 percent).

According to poll aggregation sites like 538, Gallego leads Lake by an average of 6.2 points in national polls. However, the gap is a decrease from the beginning of the month, when the Democratic candidate was ahead of Lake by an average of 7.2 points.

The latest AtlasIntel polls suggest some voters may cast a split ticket next week. While Gallego and Lake are virtually tied in Arizona, former President Donald Trump leads 50.8 percent to 47.3 percent among likely voters in the key swing state. According to 538, Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 2.3 points in the presidential race in Arizona.

According to a recent survey by The New York Times and Siena College, 10 percent of Arizona voters plan to split their votes and vote for Trump and Gallego.

The same poll, conducted Oct. 7-10 and including responses from 808 likely voters, showed Gallego leading Lake 48 percent to 41 percent.

When reached for comment, a spokesman for Lake’s campaign said Newsweek via email on Tuesday: “The momentum is with President Trump and Kari Lake, and given Republicans’ record numbers in early voting, we are confident that Arizonans will vote for both Trump and Lake in one week, on November 5th.” will bring victory.”

Also Newsweek Gallego’s campaign emailed Tuesday seeking comment.

Lake gained national attention after her first political campaign of 2022, in which she repeatedly disputed Arizona Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’ victory by claiming the election was fraudulent. Lake’s claims have been repeatedly dismissed in court.

During an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday, Lake was asked seven times if she would accept that she lost the election to Hobbs, to which the Senate hopefuls responded, “Why are we looking back?”

“I’m looking forward to what’s to come,” Lake added, avoiding answering Collins’ question. “I’m looking forward to November 5th and this big election, and the people of our state are concerned about what’s coming and what awaits them.”

Update 10/29/24, 8:29 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with additional comments from Kari Lake’s campaign.