Liberty vs. UTEP – Prediction, 9/14/24 – College Football Picks

The UTEP Miners and the Liberty Flames face off in college football action on Saturday at Williams Stadium. Here is a Liberty vs. UTEP prediction. We will look at it from a betting perspective and make the best pick for Liberty vs. UTEP.

UTEP Miners Betting Preview

The Miners’ first game was against Nebraska. The game did not go so well as UTEP allowed 23 points in the second quarter and lost 40-7. Skyler Locklear had 115 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Kam Thomas was the best receiver with seven catches for 71 yards and one touchdown.

In Saturday’s game against Southern Utah, the Miners led 17-6 at halftime but lost 24-27 in overtime. Locklear rushed for 295 yards and a touchdown. Thomas was again the top receiver with 99 yards on five catches. UTEP will play Colorado State after this game.

Liberty Flames Betting Preview

On the Flames side, they played against Campbell in their first duel. Liberty scored in double figures in the final three quarters of the 41-24 victory. QB Kaidon Salter had 242 yards and two touchdowns. Quinton Cooley led the charge with 110 yards and a TD.

In Saturday’s game against New Mexico State, the Flames were in trouble, trailing 17-9 in the final quarter, but Liberty scored three touchdowns and won 30-24. Salter rushed for 256 yards this time and Cooley rushed on 12 occasions for 111 yards and two touchdowns.

Why the Liberty Flames will win

• Liberty has won each of its last 15 games against non-AP ranked teams.
• UTEP has lost 15 of its last 16 away games in September.
• UTEP has failed to cover the spread in any of its last five September games against non-AP ranked teams.
• Liberty has covered the spread in five of its last six September home games against non-AP ranked teams.
• UTEP has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.

Why the UTEP Miners will win

• The away team has won eight of UTEP’s last ten games.
• UTEP has covered the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
• Liberty has failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

Facts about the total score

• Five of Liberty’s last six home games against non-AP ranked teams have been OVER the total.
• Five of UTEP’s last six September games as an underdog have been UNDER the total point limit.

Facts about the game/league

• Liberty ranks first among FBS teams in fourth-quarter winning percentage (1.000) this season.
• Liberty ranks first among FBS teams in H2 win percentage (1.000) this season.
• UTEP ranks 26th among FBS teams in Q1 points per game (10.5) this season.

Liberty vs. UTEP Prediction

I’m leaning toward Liberty, but will probably stay away. The Flames had some poor numbers on offense, despite totaling 473 yards (217 rushing) and 7.4 yards per game. Liberty managed just 1 of 11 third down attempts, resulting in a 28:56 time of possession. Another major downside was the 11 penalties for 122 yards.

As for UTEP, they played a sloppy game themselves, taking 14 penalties for 122 yards in their loss last weekend. The Miners had a pretty good offensive game overall (423 total yards), but weren’t great even on third downs (5 of 16). This is probably a gamble in terms of coverage, but I’m leaning towards the Flames.