Magic numbers, wildcard tiebreakers, Ohtani stats

The six-month slog was reduced to just three games. The emotional standstill will give way to complete relief.

And Major League Baseball’s playoff picture will likely finally be sorted out this weekend.

“The last few days, after a couple of wins, you could feel it in everyone here,” says Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo, whose club walked from a dead team to the postseason thanks to a three-game sweep of Washington . “Taking the bus back to the hotel – hey, we’re almost there, let’s get the victory, let’s celebrate.

“We can taste it.”

Lugo’s Royals will enter their final series of the weekend in Atlanta with the magic number one, meaning a win over the Braves or a Minnesota loss in any of their three games against Baltimore will send KC into the playoffs for the first time since 2015 .

As teams pack up for another series at the end of the season, four postseason invites and a slew of seedings remain in flux. Additionally, for certain superstars, some milestones are within reach before their season is forever enshrined on their baseball cards.

USA TODAY Sports clears up the unfinished business heading into the final weekend of the season:

AL wildcard

What could have been a mess gained much more clarity Thursday thanks to late comebacks from the Royals and Detroit Tigers that eliminated the Seattle Mariners. The Minnesota Twins are barely catching their breath and erased a four-run deficit to the Miami Marlins, only to lose a 13-inning heartbreaker that leaves their AL Central overlords with just a little more work to do heading into the weekend.

Baltimore (88-71) can lock up the No. 1 wild-card spot and a home series with a win this weekend in Minnesota or a loss in Detroit.

Kansas City (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins and thus secures a spot in the playoffs. The Royals, playing in Atlanta, own the tiebreaker against Detroit and have a magic number of three against the Tigers. You can’t finish higher than number 2.

Detroit (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins and thus secures a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers, hosting the Chicago White Sox, can finish with the No. 1 wild-card spot and clinch a home wild-card series with three wins this weekend and three Orioles losses.

Minnesota (82-77) must beat Baltimore this weekend and hope to defeat either Detroit or Kansas City; The Twins are in the tiebreaker over both clubs.

AL sowing

The East champion New York Yankees (93-66) have a magic number of two against Central champion Cleveland (92-67) and thus secure the number 1 seed; The Yankees, who face the Pirates at home, are above the Guardians in the tiebreaker and both teams are guaranteed a first-round bye.

The Western champion Houston Astros (86-73) are seeded third and will host the wild card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of this series advances to face the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL sowing

The Western champion Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) must win one more game than the Eastern champion Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) to secure first place in the NL standings. The Dodgers finish in Colorado; The Phillies are in Washington.

The Central champion Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) are seeded third and will host the wild card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of this series advances and plays the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL wildcard

Oh yes, the most complicated thing at the end.

The San Diego Padres (91-68) have secured a wild-card spot and can secure the top spot in the wild cards with a win over Arizona and any combination of three wins and losses from the New York Mets.

The Mets (87-70), Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) and Atlanta Braves (86-71) are vying for the final two wild card slots. The Mets and Braves have five games left thanks to a doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday that will have an impact on the playoff spots.

The Braves play Kansas City, the Mets are in Milwaukee and Arizona hosts the Padres this weekend.

Since there are still plenty of record combinations left, let’s get to the tiebreakers first:

The Mets and Braves both win tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks.

The Braves lead the season series against the Mets 6-5 and would secure a tiebreaker advantage with a win against the Mets.

The onus this weekend definitely falls on the Diamondbacks, who would lose in both the two-way and three-way tiebreakers. Two of three losses to the Padres means they’ll be there when Atlanta loses two to Kansas City – or one each to the Royals or New York.

In this scenario, if the Mets win two of three games against a Milwaukee team that has little room to play, the Mets could eliminate the Braves by winning the opener of the doubleheader and making the second game moot.

Here’s a nightmare scenario for a 90-72 Arizona squad: The Mets beat Milwaukee, the Braves win two against Kansas City and beat a pair of a Mets team with little to gain. Everyone finishes 90-72 – and Arizona goes home.

Anyway, that’s just a permutation. Best advice? Stay tuned!

Shohei Ohtani: 60-60?

Okay, maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves a little here.

Ohtani broke the unprecedented mark of 50 steals and 50 homers with a monster game against a last-place opponent. Well, he will finish this weekend with three games against a last-place opponent – with the games being played at altitude.

He will enter the Dodgers’ final three games at Coors Field in Colorado with 53 home runs and 56 stolen bases. The way Ohtani got on base and ran wild, 60 steals seem like a given.

Can he hit seven home runs in three games?

Well, that depends on a lot of factors, most notably whether the Dodgers are still playing for seeding heading into the NLCS and World Series. And how much they value staying fit in the face of a possible five-day break before an NL Division Series.

So the chances are slim. But just know that Ohtani returns to pitching in 2025 and may not reach those heights again. It will be fascinating to see what numbers he lands on.

Aaron Judge: Another shot at Maris – or at yourself?

It is never advisable to sleep on Judge.

Still, so much attention has been paid to Ohtani that it’s a little easier to somehow overlook the 6-7 slugger in the Bronx. But Judge has hit a home run in five straight games, giving him 58 points this season.

And three games to hit two home runs and join Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only players with multiple 60-homer seasons. Three more, and his 2024 season ties Roger Maris for No. 2 on the AL’s single-season homer list.

Four more and Judge will tie his record of 62 homers from the 2022 season. Five more? Well, he faces the Pirates – although Pittsburgh will start rookie ace Paul Skenes on Saturday.

Jose Ramirez: 40-40?

Ah, such a quaint little statistical plateau.

It was certainly easy to overlook what was once an unparalleled power-speed combination, especially given the condescending stolen base rules that greatly inflate stolen base totals.

But Ramirez somehow remains an underrated superstar — and he only needs two home runs to join the 40-40 club.

The man is so amazingly consistent, his OPS this year of .867 is right near his incredible career mark of .856. Still, Ramirez is on his way to his sixth top-six AL MVP finish — and has no trophies to show for it.

This time, Judge, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson are responsible for stealing his shine. But 40-40 doesn’t have to be measured against others.

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