Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction, odds, tips: Bet on a low-scoring game

Due to a two-week injury layoff, the Mets are tied for the last wild-card spot and will be looking to pick up another win against the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon before heading to Philadelphia to face the first-place Phillies.

The Mets batters will have their hands full as AL Pitcher of the Month Bowden Francis will be pitching for Toronto, facing Sean Manaea, who is having a strong month of his own.

Here’s a breakdown of Wednesday’s game with a prediction and pick for Blue Jays vs. Mets at Rogers Centre.

But let’s first look at the odds.

Mets vs. Blue Jays odds

Prediction Blue Jays vs. Mets

Francis had a historic August, going 4-1 with a 1.05 ERA and a 0.41 WHIP.

He struck out 39 batters in 34 innings and walked just four. Against the Angels on August 24, he pitched a no-hitter until the ninth inning before allowing a home run to Taylor Ward.

The Toronto right-hander has adjusted his pitching to rely more heavily on his splitter, which he used exceptionally well during his incredible streak, and since making a grip adjustment, it has become an elite pitch for him.

He has increased his use of the slider against right-handed hitters and essentially eliminated the slider altogether against left-handed hitters.

In Francis’ last 40 1/3 innings, he has allowed a 1.56 ERA and an opponents’ batting average of just .119. During that span, he has struck out 10.04 batters per nine innings and held an xFIP of 3.08. Over the last 30 days, his K-BB% of 29.3 is the best in baseball.

That kind of dominance isn’t likely to continue as the league battles his adjusted arsenal, and some skeptics might view his last outing against Philadelphia as a sort of “aha” moment for opponents studying his film. But allowing three earned runs while also committing 16 mishits against an elite Phillies offense isn’t a bad performance in my book.

Manaea also started this matchup with a strong performance. In his last 44 1/3 innings, the Mets left-hander has posted an ERA of 3.25 while allowing an opponent batting average of just .172.

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He has increased his strikeout rate to 30% and his swinging strike rate to 13.1%. He has allowed an xFIP of just 3.43 and a zone contact rate of 80.0%.

Even though the Blue Jays hitters were much more effective in the final third of the season, they still had trouble hitting left-handed pitchers.

Since August 1, Toronto has a wRC+ of just 86 against left-handed pitchers and has had a strikeout 26.6% of the time.

Blue Jays vs. Mets tip

Francis faces a tougher opponent than the Mets, who rank 17th in wRC+ against right-handers since the beginning of August. The Mets’ offense had a bad night in Tuesday’s 6-2 loss.

Given the recent excellent performances from both starters and the Blue Jays’ season-long struggles with left-handed pitchers, I think it makes sense to bet on the game going under the projected total, but make sure you get the best odds available.

Best bet: Under 8 runs (-118, DraftKings)