MLB odds, tips, best bets Thursday

Baseball’s greatest rivalry will reignite on Thursday when the Yankees and Red Sox begin their final head-to-head meeting of 2024 in the Bronx.

Since the Yankees do not have a day off this week, Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.97 ERA) will get another chance as a starter after being used as a long reliever last time out against the Cubs.

Cortes will face right-hander Cooper Criswell (6-4, 4.11 ERA), who has quietly put in a solid performance with a 2.12 ERA in his last four games.

Let us analyze Thursday evening’s duel and make a prediction and selection.

Odds for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Prediction Red Sox vs. Yankees

While Criswell has had a strong streak in terms of runs allowed, his underlying results have not been nearly as impressive.

In his last five starts, he posted a 5.38 xFIP and was hit hard 43 percent of the time. During that span, he also allowed a .323 xBA and a .308 true batting average.

Despite allowing just two earned runs in five innings, Criswell was shaky overall in his last outing against the White Sox, allowing five hits and not recording a single strikeout, and getting hit hard 50 percent of the time.

Chances are the Yankees won’t let Criswell get away as easily as the White Sox did. While some of the Yankees’ top hitters are struggling right now (we’re talking about you, Aaron Judge), their performance throughout the season suggests that a few weak hitting streaks shouldn’t be too much of a concern.

Since the beginning of August, the Yankees have a .440 slugging average against right-handed pitchers with a wRC+ of 118. They also have the fourth-best BB/K ratio in baseball in this sample and the third-best hard hit rate.

If Criswell struggles early on, it could lead to a poor overall result for the Yankees, as the Red Sox bullpen has the worst ERA (5.91) and FIP (4.97) in the league over the last 30 days.

The return of Justin Slaten from the injured list could alleviate the problem somewhat, even though he allowed a tying home run to Baltimore’s Anthony Santander on Wednesday night.

Cortes, meanwhile, will look to put his statement into action after making some heated postgame comments about his use out of the bullpen over the weekend.

Cortes has stabilized after a poor stretch in late July. In his last 33 ⅔ innings, he has a 3.21 ERA with a 4.39 xFIP. During that time, he has allowed a batting average of .228 with a .250 xBA.

Cortes has always loved pitching at Yankee Stadium, and it would be no surprise if the Bronx were firmly behind him on Thursday.

In each of his four seasons in New York, the left-hander posted a better ERA at home. That includes a 3.19 ERA this year with a 0.99 WHIP at home, compared to 4.81/1.32 on the road.

Last month, the Red Sox posted a wRC+ of just 68 against left-handed pitchers and struck out 29.3% of the time.

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Red Sox vs. Yankees tip

The Yankees could damage Criswell early and have a good chance to add to that against some of the Red Sox’s weaker relievers.

With Cortes in good form lately and having a great matchup, this seems like a good spot to target the Yankees, who cover the run line with plus money.

Tip: Yankees -1.5 (+112, FanDuel)