My first bet: Early tips for NFL Week 1

The NFL schedule for the first week of 2024 is packed with some great matchups.

The first week features both a Thursday and Friday night game, as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) open the season against the Baltimore Ravens on September 5. NFL action then moves to Brazil, where the Green Bay Packers face the Philadelphia Eagles on September 6.

The Detroit Lions have an NFC Divisional Round rematch against the Los Angeles Rams on September 8, and to close out the schedule, Aaron Rodgers will likely return when the New York Jets face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football (ABC/ESPN+) on September 9.

Our betting analysts have looked at the odds for the first few weeks of the first week to find valuable tips before the odds change just before the games.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Several reputable bookies – both in Las Vegas and abroad – have already adjusted their odds downward to Chiefs -2.5 thanks to the influx of money from the Ravens. With Baltimore +3 (-120) still available at ESPN BET, I’m getting in now before the key number “3” disappears.

Since taking over as head coach in Baltimore in 2008, John Harbaugh has an absolutely unthinkable 12-4 straight-up and against the spread in Week 1. That 75% shooting percentage has risen to 85.7% (6-1 SU and ATS) from 2017 to present, with an insane +18.9 coverage margin. Look for newly acquired running back Derrick Henry and Baltimore’s rushing attack to keep the Ravens offense on the field… and Patrick Mahomes off it.

Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions

I don’t know if it goes down to 3, but if it does, I want the extra half point for the Rams. Sean McVay was an absolute killer in Week 1 (6-1 ATS). The Rams easily could have won the Wild Card game in January at Ford Field. This should be another hard-fought game that’s all about luck. Having more than a field goal lead on the scoreboard seems very valuable to me.

Ben Solak’s first bet: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-120) at Cleveland Browns

I know the Browns were 5-1 in Deshaun Watson’s six appearances last season, but in that short time he was anything but impressive. Without Nick Chubb in the backfield, Watson will have to carry the Browns’ offense against a defense that is likely to remain weak in Dallas despite the injury to DaRon Bland.

But even more than I want to blank the Browns early, I’m buying the Cowboys early. I think they drafted well and developed well to offset the departures on the offensive line. I also think our focus on the poor long-term health of the Cowboys franchise (long CeeDee Lamb contract extension, no Dak deal, no Parsons deal) is currently misleading us against the short-term health of the Cowboys roster. Prescott, Parsons and Lamb are still a work in progress. Only the Chiefs have won more regular-season games than the Cowboys over the last three years. This is still a very good football team.

Seth Walder’s first bet: Alternate Spread: Seattle Seahawks (-12.5, +215) vs. Denver Broncos

I’m using an alternate line here to take advantage of the fact that this game has a lot more variety than a normal contest. There’s a chance that Ryan Grubb’s offense — which led Washington to the national title game last year — can provide instant fireworks in its NFL debut. Mike Macdonald should find creative ways to apply pressure and breathe instant life into Seattle’s pass rush. And there’s a chance that Bo Nix just can’t keep up in his NFL debut. I don’t know if either of those cases will happen, but the chance of an extreme outcome seems much higher here than in most games.

Andre Snelling’s first bet: Green Bay Packers +3.0 against Philadelphia Eagles (-120).

Jalen Hurts hasn’t played at all this preseason and will begin the season with a new offense under a new offensive coordinator for the second year in a row. The Packers are currently getting the full 3 points on ESPN BET, although the Eagles won’t really have home-field advantage since the game is being played in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While I expect the Eagles to look better than the team that lost six of their final seven games last season, they will face a Packers team that finished last year with flying colors when Jordan Love broke through in his first year at quarterback. Love enters this year with a whole host of exciting, young wide receivers who are healthy, which raises the ceiling for the Packers’ offense and increases the likelihood that they start the season on a high note.

Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Lamar Jackson over 675.5 rushing yards.

Lamar Jackson is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history. The 2024 season shouldn’t make a difference. The Ravens’ offense is known for its run-heavy approach, which plays to Jackson’s strengths as a mobile quarterback. Jackson has both the agility and speed to evade defenders and make explosive plays. It’s his keen awareness on the field, his ability to read defenses and then make a split-second decision that helps Jackson maximize his rushing opportunities. Last year, Jackson rushed for 821 yards despite having the ninth-hardest schedule among his opponents. This year, the Ravens have the 10th-easiest schedule among their rushing defenses. The Ravens are built around the run game, and Jackson will have plenty of opportunities to pick up rushing yards.